K. Lierse S.K. 1-2 RAAL La Louvière – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates K. Lierse S.K. at 52%, yet in-form RAAL La Louvière provide a compelling counter-argument — this K. Lierse S.K. vs RAAL La Louvière fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
K. Lierse S.K. host RAAL La Louvière at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 9). Kick-off is Sunday 27 October 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
K. Lierse S.K. — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
K. Lierse S.K. at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — K. Lierse S.K. are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 8 matches, RAAL La Louvière stand at 5W 2D 1L — 2.12 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 0.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.75 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity.
RAAL La Louvière away from home: 3W 1D 0L from their last 4 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour RAAL La Louvière — 0.72 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.12 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from K. Lierse S.K.'s last 10 home games and RAAL La Louvière's last 4 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
K. Lierse S.K. in-play and half-time data (last 8 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
RAAL La Louvière in-play and half-time data (last 8 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — K. Lierse S.K. 38% versus RAAL La Louvière 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (K. Lierse S.K. 62% | RAAL La Louvière 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 1.64 xG and RAAL La Louvière 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.347 / defence 0.829 | RAAL La Louvière attack 0.937 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.305. K. Lierse S.K. carry an above-average attack rating of 1.347 — their 1.64 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from K. Lierse S.K.'s last 38 games and RAAL La Louvière's last 8.
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 52% | Draw 25% | RAAL La Louvière 23%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 1.93 | Draw 4.02 | RAAL La Louvière 4.30. K. Lierse S.K. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates K. Lierse S.K. as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form RAAL La Louvière (2.12 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on K. Lierse S.K. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: K. Lierse S.K. 70% (last 10 home games) | RAAL La Louvière 75% (last 4 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs RAAL La Louvière | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 9 | Venue: Herman Vanderpoortenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 52% | Draw 25% | RAAL La Louvière 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG K. Lierse S.K. 1.64 / RAAL La Louvière 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.347 / def 0.829 | RAAL La Louvière attack 0.937 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: K. Lierse S.K. (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
1.01
RAAL La Louvière xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ K. Lierse S.K. vs RAAL La Louvière FAQs
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs RAAL La Louvière kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs RAAL La Louvière kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs RAAL La Louvière?
K. Lierse S.K. 1 - 2 RAAL La Louvière.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs RAAL La Louvière being played?
The match is being played at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs RAAL La Louvière part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs RAAL La Louvière is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 9) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 52% chance of winning, RAAL La Louvière a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making K. Lierse S.K. the favourite.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and RAAL La Louvière will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs RAAL La Louvière have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from K. Lierse S.K.'s attack rating (1.35) and RAAL La Louvière's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RAAL La Louvière's attack versus K. Lierse S.K.'s defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from K. Lierse S.K.'s last 38 games and RAAL La Louvière's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
K. Lierse S.K. Win
52%
1.93
25%
4.02
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
2.65
1.01
RAAL La Louvière xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
19%
5.15
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
5%
22.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.7 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ K. Lierse S.K. vs RAAL La Louvière Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs RAAL La Louvière?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and RAAL La Louvière expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 1.01 for RAAL La Louvière, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs RAAL La Louvière?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, K. Lierse S.K. have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 4W 1D 3L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
RAAL La Louvière's form line: 5W 2D 1L from 8 games, 2.12 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W.
Put side by side, RAAL La Louvière are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against K. Lierse S.K..
Venue Form
On home soil, K. Lierse S.K. have posted 2.25 PPG from their last 4 home games (3W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — K. Lierse S.K. are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, RAAL La Louvière have gone 3W 1D 0L from their last 4 away games — 2.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; RAAL La Louvière are on 1.38 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: K. Lierse S.K. have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; RAAL La Louvière in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
RAAL La Louvière
Blended
K. Lierse S.K. (Home) vs RAAL La Louvière (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
RAAL La Louvière
Blended
❓ K. Lierse S.K. vs RAAL La Louvière Form FAQs
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and RAAL La Louvière in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 games (1.62 PPG), while RAAL La Louvière have gone 5W 2D 1L in their last 8 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — K. Lierse S.K. at home or RAAL La Louvière away?
RAAL La Louvière's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — K. Lierse S.K. at home: 2.25 PPG; RAAL La Louvière away: 2.50 PPG.
Have K. Lierse S.K. or RAAL La Louvière been keeping clean sheets recently?
K. Lierse S.K. have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, RAAL La Louvière in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 14 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
K. Lierse S.K.
0
Draws
2
RAAL La Louvière
Recent Meetings
❓ K. Lierse S.K. vs RAAL La Louvière H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and RAAL La Louvière?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, K. Lierse S.K. have won 0, RAAL La Louvière have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and RAAL La Louvière last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2025: RAAL La Louvière 2-1 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between K. Lierse S.K. and RAAL La Louvière?
RAAL La Louvière have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
RAAL La Louvière are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — K. Lierse S.K. 25%, RAAL La Louvière 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for K. Lierse S.K. and 50% for RAAL La Louvière. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: K. Lierse S.K. keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / RAAL La Louvière away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ K. Lierse S.K. vs RAAL La Louvière Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in K. Lierse S.K. and RAAL La Louvière matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of K. Lierse S.K.'s recent matches and 75% of RAAL La Louvière's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are K. Lierse S.K. and RAAL La Louvière matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of K. Lierse S.K.'s matches and 50% of RAAL La Louvière's.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and RAAL La Louvière matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of K. Lierse S.K.'s recent matches and 100% of RAAL La Louvière's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as RAAL La Louvière defy the odds to beat K. Lierse S.K. 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RAAL La Louvière beat K. Lierse S.K. 1-2 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.64 xG and RAAL La Louvière 1.01 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. RAAL La Louvière outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.35 / defence 0.83 against RAAL La Louvière attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 52% | Draw 25% | RAAL La Louvière 23%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a RAAL La Louvière win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 62%, RAAL La Louvière 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, RAAL La Louvière arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.62. The form guide was vindicated by the result. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.