Francs Borains 1-2 Lokeren-Temse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Francs Borains at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Francs Borains host Lokeren-Temse at Stade Robert Urbain in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Francs Borains have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Francs Borains's home record at Stade Robert Urbain: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Robert Urbain this season.
Lokeren-Temse — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lokeren-Temse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Lokeren-Temse have posted 3W 2D 4L from 9 away outings — 1.22 PPG. Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.22 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Francs Borains have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Francs Borains have won 1, Lokeren-Temse 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Francs Borains winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Francs Borains in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Lokeren-Temse in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 60% versus Lokeren-Temse 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 70% | Lokeren-Temse 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.37 xG and Lokeren-Temse 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.859 / defence 1.175 | Lokeren-Temse attack 0.782 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.374. Data: 51 Francs Borains games / 20 Lokeren-Temse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 39% | Draw 26% | Lokeren-Temse 34%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Lokeren-Temse 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Francs Borains at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Francs Borains offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Francs Borains 70% | Lokeren-Temse 33%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 39% | Draw 26% | Lokeren-Temse 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Francs Borains 1.37 / Lokeren-Temse 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.859 / def 1.175 | Lokeren-Temse attack 0.782 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Francs Borains (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Lokeren-Temse xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse kick off?
Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse?
Francs Borains 1 - 2 Lokeren-Temse.
Where is Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse part of?
Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 39% chance of winning, Lokeren-Temse a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Francs Borains the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Francs Borains and Lokeren-Temse will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Lokeren-Temse?
Record (1 meetings): Francs Borains 1W | Draws 0 | Lokeren-Temse 0W.
What form are Francs Borains and Lokeren-Temse in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Lokeren-Temse (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Francs Borains's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Lokeren-Temse's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Lokeren-Temse's attack versus Francs Borains's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Francs Borains Win
39%
2.54
26%
3.82
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
2.63
1.26
Lokeren-Temse xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
11%
8.97
9%
11.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and Lokeren-Temse expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.26 for Lokeren-Temse, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Francs Borains's recent record stands at 7W 4D 9L from 20 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lokeren-Temse, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 10L across 20 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Lokeren-Temse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Francs Borains on 1.25 PPG, Lokeren-Temse on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Francs Borains have managed 1W 2D 6L from 9 games — 0.56 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.25 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Lokeren-Temse's away record stands at 3W 2D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lokeren-Temse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Francs Borains are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Lokeren-Temse are on 0.75 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Francs Borains have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Lokeren-Temse in 30%.
Last 20 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Blended
Lokeren-Temse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and Lokeren-Temse in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 7W 4D 9L in their last 20 games (1.25 PPG), while Lokeren-Temse have gone 4W 6D 10L in their last 20 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or Lokeren-Temse away?
Lokeren-Temse's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 0.56 PPG; Lokeren-Temse away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Francs Borains or Lokeren-Temse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Francs Borains have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Lokeren-Temse in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Francs Borains go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Sep 2026, when Francs Borains won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Francs Borains's record when hosting Lokeren-Temse specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Francs Borains
1
Draws
1
Lokeren-Temse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Lokeren-Temse?
From 5 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 3, Lokeren-Temse have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and Lokeren-Temse last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Francs Borains 3-0 Lokeren-Temse.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and Lokeren-Temse?
Francs Borains have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lokeren-Temse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 78%, Lokeren-Temse 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 78% (Francs Borains) and 33% (Lokeren-Temse). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lokeren-Temse in 33%; Lokeren-Temse in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / Lokeren-Temse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play Lokeren-Temse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Francs Borains's games and 33% of Lokeren-Temse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Francs Borains's matches and 33% of Lokeren-Temse's.
Do Francs Borains and Lokeren-Temse tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Lokeren-Temse in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lokeren-Temse defy the odds to beat Francs Borains 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lokeren-Temse beat Francs Borains 1-2 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 22, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.37 xG and Lokeren-Temse 1.26 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.86 / defence 1.18 against Lokeren-Temse attack 0.78 / defence 1.16, drawn from 51/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 39% | Draw 26% | Lokeren-Temse 34%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Lokeren-Temse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 70%, Lokeren-Temse 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Francs Borains 1.25 PPG, Lokeren-Temse 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lokeren-Temse win broke the near-deadlock. Lokeren-Temse (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.