Dender 0-1 Deinze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Deinze at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dender vs Deinze encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dender host Deinze at Dender Football Complex in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 February 2023 at 18:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dender stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dender, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dender at Dender Football Complex this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Deinze have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Deinze have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Deinze — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Dender, 0 for Deinze and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2022, ended 2–0 with Dender winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Dender trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Deinze trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dender 60% and Deinze 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 45% | Deinze 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 1.18 xG and Deinze 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 0.842 / defence 1.440 | Deinze attack 0.713 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.437. Data: 20 Dender games / 48 Deinze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dender 30% | Draw 26% | Deinze 44%. Fair-value odds: Dender 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Deinze 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deinze are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deinze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dender 60% | Deinze 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Dender Football Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 30% | Draw 26% | Deinze 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Dender 1.18 / Deinze 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 0.842 / def 1.440 | Deinze attack 0.713 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Deinze (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Dender xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Deinze xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dender vs Deinze kick off?
Dender vs Deinze kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Dender Football Complex.
What was the final score in Dender vs Deinze?
Dender 0 - 1 Deinze.
Where is Dender vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Dender Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs Deinze part of?
Dender vs Deinze is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 30% chance of winning, Deinze a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dender and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will Dender vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Deinze?
Record (1 meetings): Dender 1W | Draws 0 | Deinze 0W.
What form are Dender and Deinze in?
Dender (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Deinze (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dender's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Deinze's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Deinze's attack versus Dender's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
30%
3.30
26%
3.89
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Dender xG
Total xG
2.66
1.48
Deinze xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
7%
14.44
13%
7.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Dender and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Dender and 1.48 for Deinze, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs Deinze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dender's recent record stands at 5W 4D 11L from 20 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Dender is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Deinze, meanwhile, have gone 8W 3D 9L across 20 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Deinze by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dender heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dender have managed 2W 0D 8L from 10 games — 0.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Deinze's away record stands at 2W 2D 6L across 10 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Deinze's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Dender are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.30 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dender have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Deinze in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Blended
Deinze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dender and Deinze in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 5W 4D 11L in their last 20 games (0.95 PPG), while Deinze have gone 8W 3D 9L in their last 20 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or Deinze away?
Deinze's away record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 0.60 PPG; Deinze away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2024, when Dender won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dender's record when hosting Deinze specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Dender
1
Draws
2
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Deinze?
From 6 meetings on record, Dender have won 3, Deinze have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dender and Deinze last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Dender 3-0 Deinze.
Who has won more matches between Dender and Deinze?
Dender have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dender 60%, Deinze 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Dender) and 40% (Deinze). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dender have failed to score in 40% of games; Deinze in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dender play Deinze?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Dender's recent matches and 40% of Deinze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dender vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Dender's matches and 40% of Deinze's.
Do Dender and Deinze tend to score early?
Dender have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Deinze in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Deinze edge out Dender 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deinze beat Dender 0-1 at Dender Football Complex, Regular Season - 21, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.18 xG and Deinze 1.48 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dender fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.84 / defence 1.44 against Deinze attack 0.71 / defence 0.95, drawn from 20/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dender 30% | Draw 26% | Deinze 44%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 45%, Deinze 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dender's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Deinze's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Deinze arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Dender (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line. Deinze (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.