Deinze 1-1 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deinze at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deinze vs Lommel United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Deinze host Lommel United at Dakota Arena in Challenger Pro League, Relegation Round - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 March 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Deinze — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deinze's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at Dakota Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Lommel United have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lommel United — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Deinze have won 1, Lommel United 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2022, ended 0–1 with Lommel United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Deinze in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games).
Lommel United in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deinze 66% versus Lommel United 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deinze 64% | Lommel United 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deinze 1.86 xG and Lommel United 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deinze attack 1.183 / defence 1.182 | Lommel United attack 1.054 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.453. Data: 50 Deinze games / 50 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deinze 40% | Draw 22% | Lommel United 38%. Fair-value odds: Deinze 2.50 | Draw 4.55 | Lommel United 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deinze are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lommel United (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deinze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Deinze 80% | Lommel United 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deinze vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Dakota Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deinze 40% | Draw 22% | Lommel United 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG Deinze 1.86 / Lommel United 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Deinze attack 1.183 / def 1.182 | Lommel United attack 1.054 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: Deinze (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Deinze xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Lommel United xG
71%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deinze vs Lommel United kick off?
Deinze vs Lommel United kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Dakota Arena.
What was the final score in Deinze vs Lommel United?
Deinze 1 - 1 Lommel United.
Where is Deinze vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Dakota Arena.
What competition is Deinze vs Lommel United part of?
Deinze vs Lommel United is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Deinze vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives Deinze a 40% chance of winning, Lommel United a 38% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deinze vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Deinze and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will Deinze vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Lommel United?
Record (3 meetings): Deinze 1W | Draws 0 | Lommel United 2W.
What form are Deinze and Lommel United in?
Deinze (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Lommel United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Deinze's attack rating (1.18) and Lommel United's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus Deinze's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.0%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
40%
2.49
22%
4.61
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Deinze xG
Total xG
3.67
1.81
Lommel United xG
2.49
40%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.42
29%
BTTS No
3.40
Clean Sheet
16%
6.11
16%
6.41
Win to Nil
7%
15.23
6%
16.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deinze vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Deinze and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Deinze and 1.81 for Lommel United, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Deinze vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Deinze have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 19W 15D 19L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lommel United's form line: 21W 10D 22L from 53 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Deinze on 1.36 PPG, Lommel United on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Deinze have posted 1.54 PPG from 26 outings (11W 7D 8L).
On the road, Lommel United have gone 10W 5D 11L from 26 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Deinze are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.42 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deinze
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deinze and Lommel United in coming into this match?
Deinze have gone 19W 15D 19L in their last 53 games (1.36 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 21W 10D 22L in their last 53 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deinze at home or Lommel United away?
Deinze's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deinze at home: 1.54 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Deinze and Lommel United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Deinze won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Deinze's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Deinze
3
Draws
5
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Lommel United?
From 10 meetings on record, Deinze have won 2, Lommel United have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Deinze and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Lommel United 1-1 Deinze.
Who has won more matches between Deinze and Lommel United?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Deinze at 81%, Lommel United at 54%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Deinze and 65% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deinze home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deinze play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of Deinze's games and 54% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Deinze vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Deinze's matches and 65% of Lommel United's.
Do Deinze and Lommel United tend to score early?
Deinze have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Deinze and Lommel United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deinze and Lommel United finished level at 1-1 at Dakota Arena, Relegation Round - 4, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deinze 1.86 xG and Lommel United 1.81 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Deinze fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Lommel United landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deinze attack 1.18 / defence 1.18 against Lommel United attack 1.05 / defence 1.10, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deinze 40% | Draw 22% | Lommel United 38%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deinze 64%, Lommel United 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deinze's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Lommel United's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deinze 1.36 PPG, Lommel United 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Deinze (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.