Beerschot VA 2-1 Olympic Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beerschot VA at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beerschot VA vs Olympic Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beerschot VA and Olympic Charleroi meet at Olympisch Stadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Beerschot VA (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beerschot VA's home record at Olympisch Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Olympic Charleroi's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Olympic Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympic Charleroi's away record: 2W 4D 2L from 8 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Beerschot VA against 1.10 for Olympic Charleroi. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Beerschot VA have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Olympic Charleroi in 62%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Beerschot VA lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Beerschot VA winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Beerschot VA — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Olympic Charleroi — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 61% versus Olympic Charleroi 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 50% | Olympic Charleroi 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.73 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.973 / defence 1.030 | Olympic Charleroi attack 1.092 / defence 1.312. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.352. Olympic Charleroi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.312 — this is suppressing Beerschot VA's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Beerschot VA games / 18 Olympic Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 43% | Draw 23% | Olympic Charleroi 34%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Olympic Charleroi 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beerschot VA are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beerschot VA if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Beerschot VA 60% | Olympic Charleroi 62% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs Olympic Charleroi | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 43% | Draw 23% | Olympic Charleroi 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Beerschot VA 1.73 / Olympic Charleroi 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.973 / def 1.030 | Olympic Charleroi attack 1.092 / def 1.312 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Olympic Charleroi xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs Olympic Charleroi kick off?
Beerschot VA vs Olympic Charleroi kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs Olympic Charleroi?
Beerschot VA 2 - 1 Olympic Charleroi.
Where is Beerschot VA vs Olympic Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs Olympic Charleroi part of?
Beerschot VA vs Olympic Charleroi is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 43% chance of winning, Olympic Charleroi a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Beerschot VA and Olympic Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs Olympic Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Olympic Charleroi?
Record (1 meetings): Beerschot VA 1W | Draws 0 | Olympic Charleroi 0W.
What form are Beerschot VA and Olympic Charleroi in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Olympic Charleroi (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Beerschot VA's attack at 0.97x the league average against Olympic Charleroi's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Olympic Charleroi's attack (1.09x) against Beerschot VA's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
43%
2.33
23%
4.33
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
3.25
1.52
Olympic Charleroi xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
9%
10.65
6%
16.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and Olympic Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.52 for Olympic Charleroi, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs Olympic Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Beerschot VA have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 10W 3D 5L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympic Charleroi's form line: 2W 6D 10L from 18 games, 0.67 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-D. The sample for Olympic Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beerschot VA are the form team by 1.16 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Olympic Charleroi.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Beerschot VA have posted 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L).
On the road, Olympic Charleroi have gone 2W 4D 2L from 8 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.67 PPG overall record — Olympic Charleroi travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Beerschot VA are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Olympic Charleroi are on 0.89 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beerschot VA have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Blended
Olympic Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and Olympic Charleroi in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 10W 3D 5L in their last 18 games (1.83 PPG), while Olympic Charleroi have gone 2W 6D 10L in their last 18 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or Olympic Charleroi away?
Beerschot VA's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 1.62 PPG; Olympic Charleroi away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Beerschot VA or Olympic Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beerschot VA have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Olympic Charleroi in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Beerschot VA
0
Draws
0
Olympic Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Olympic Charleroi?
From 2 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 2, Olympic Charleroi have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and Olympic Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Beerschot VA 2-1 Olympic Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and Olympic Charleroi?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beerschot VA see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Olympic Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 50%, Olympic Charleroi 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Beerschot VA) and 62% (Olympic Charleroi). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / Olympic Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play Olympic Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Beerschot VA's games and 62% of Olympic Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beerschot VA vs Olympic Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Beerschot VA's matches and 62% of Olympic Charleroi's.
Do Beerschot VA and Olympic Charleroi tend to score early?
Beerschot VA have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Olympic Charleroi in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beerschot VA edge out Olympic Charleroi 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat Olympic Charleroi 2-1 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.73 xG and Olympic Charleroi 1.52 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.97 / defence 1.03 against Olympic Charleroi attack 1.09 / defence 1.31, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 43% | Draw 23% | Olympic Charleroi 34%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 50%, Olympic Charleroi 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beerschot VA arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.