AS Eupen 1-2 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Eupen vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AS Eupen host SK Beveren at Kehrwegstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Eupen stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AS Eupen have posted 6W 3D 1L at Kehrwegstadion — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SK Beveren — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. AS Eupen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SK Beveren in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for AS Eupen, 1 for SK Beveren and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
AS Eupen in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
SK Beveren in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Eupen 54% versus SK Beveren 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 61% | SK Beveren 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.16 xG and SK Beveren 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 1.025 / defence 0.973 | SK Beveren attack 1.238 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.361. SK Beveren have an above-average attack strength of 1.238 — the away xG of 1.64 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 AS Eupen games / 47 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 27% | Draw 24% | SK Beveren 49%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | SK Beveren 2.04. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SK Beveren at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AS Eupen 60% | SK Beveren 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Kehrwegstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 27% | Draw 24% | SK Beveren 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG AS Eupen 1.16 / SK Beveren 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 1.025 / def 0.973 | SK Beveren attack 1.238 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
1.64
SK Beveren xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Eupen vs SK Beveren kick off?
AS Eupen vs SK Beveren kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Kehrwegstadion.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs SK Beveren?
AS Eupen 1 - 2 SK Beveren.
Where is AS Eupen vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Kehrwegstadion.
What competition is AS Eupen vs SK Beveren part of?
AS Eupen vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 27% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both AS Eupen and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will AS Eupen vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and SK Beveren?
Record (3 meetings): AS Eupen 0W | Draws 2 | SK Beveren 1W.
What form are AS Eupen and SK Beveren in?
AS Eupen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. SK Beveren (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AS Eupen's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against SK Beveren's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus AS Eupen's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
27%
3.71
24%
4.09
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
2.80
1.64
SK Beveren xG
3.71
27%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
19%
5.15
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
5%
19.11
15%
6.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for AS Eupen and 1.64 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, AS Eupen have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 16W 12D 18L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Beveren's form line: 28W 10D 8L from 46 games, 2.04 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SK Beveren are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AS Eupen.
Venue Form
On home soil, AS Eupen have posted 1.45 PPG from 22 outings (9W 5D 8L).
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 13W 4D 5L from 22 away games — 1.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Eupen are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.72 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Eupen and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 16W 12D 18L in their last 46 games (1.30 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 28W 10D 8L in their last 46 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 1.45 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.95 PPG.
Have AS Eupen or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Eupen have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2025, when SK Beveren won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Eupen's record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
AS Eupen
2
Draws
2
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and SK Beveren?
From 4 meetings on record, AS Eupen have won 0, SK Beveren have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when AS Eupen 1-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Eupen 64%, SK Beveren 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for AS Eupen and 54% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Eupen play SK Beveren?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of AS Eupen's recent matches and 46% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Eupen vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of AS Eupen's matches and 54% of SK Beveren's.
Do AS Eupen and SK Beveren tend to score early?
AS Eupen have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out AS Eupen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat AS Eupen 1-2 at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.16 xG and SK Beveren 1.64 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 1.02 / defence 0.97 against SK Beveren attack 1.24 / defence 0.84, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 27% | Draw 24% | SK Beveren 49%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 61%, SK Beveren 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
SK Beveren's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.