WSG Wattens 4-0 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Relegation Round - 2 sees Wolfsberger AC travel to Tivoli Stadion Tirol to take on WSG Wattens. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 April 2023, 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
WSG Wattens — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — WSG Wattens at 1.10 PPG versus Wolfsberger AC's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
WSG Wattens trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — WSG Wattens 54% and Wolfsberger AC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (WSG Wattens 66% | Wolfsberger AC 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.15 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.927 / defence 1.248 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.023 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.335. Data: 44 WSG Wattens games / 44 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 26% | Draw 24% | Wolfsberger AC 50%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | Wolfsberger AC 2.00. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 50% | Wolfsberger AC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Friday 7 Apr 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 26% | Draw 24% | Wolfsberger AC 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG WSG Wattens 1.15 / Wolfsberger AC 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.927 / def 1.248 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.023 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Wolfsberger AC xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 7 April 2023 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
WSG Wattens 4 - 0 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 26% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from WSG Wattens's attack rating (0.93) and Wolfsberger AC's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
26%
3.88
24%
4.18
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.86
1.71
Wolfsberger AC xG
3.88
26%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
18%
5.50
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
5%
21.33
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.71 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
WSG Wattens's recent record stands at 19W 11D 25L from 55 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC, meanwhile, have gone 21W 8D 26L across 55 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: WSG Wattens on 1.24 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, WSG Wattens have managed 9W 8D 10L from 27 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wolfsberger AC's away record stands at 11W 5D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.53 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC in 67%.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 19W 11D 25L in their last 55 games (1.24 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 21W 8D 26L in their last 55 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.30 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Feb 2024, when Wolfsberger AC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
WSG Wattens
4
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 2, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 2-0 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 56%, Wolfsberger AC 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for WSG Wattens and 74% for Wolfsberger AC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of WSG Wattens's games and 63% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of WSG Wattens's matches and 74% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do WSG Wattens and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant WSG Wattens run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Wolfsberger AC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat Wolfsberger AC 4-0 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Round - 2, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.15 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.71 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. WSG Wattens beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wolfsberger AC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.93 / defence 1.25 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.02 / defence 0.90, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 26% | Draw 24% | Wolfsberger AC 50%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual WSG Wattens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 66%, Wolfsberger AC 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.24 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the WSG Wattens win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.