Wolfsberger AC 1-1 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 22 as Wolfsberger AC welcome SCR Altach to Lavanttal Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 March 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wolfsberger AC — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC at Lavanttal Arena this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, Wolfsberger AC have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Wolfsberger AC have won 0, SCR Altach 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 60% versus SCR Altach 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 68% | SCR Altach 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.85 xG and SCR Altach 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.185 / defence 1.060 | SCR Altach attack 0.877 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.067. Data: 43 Wolfsberger AC games / 43 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 58% | Draw 23% | SCR Altach 20%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | SCR Altach 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Wolfsberger AC (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Wolfsberger AC 60% | SCR Altach 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 58% | Draw 23% | SCR Altach 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.85 / SCR Altach 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.185 / def 1.060 | SCR Altach attack 0.877 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
0.99
SCR Altach xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Wolfsberger AC 1 - 1 SCR Altach.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 58% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach?
Record (1 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 0W | Draws 1 | SCR Altach 0W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 1.19x the league average against SCR Altach's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
58%
1.74
23%
4.43
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.84
0.99
SCR Altach xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
3%
31.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 0.99 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Wolfsberger AC have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 20W 10D 23L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SCR Altach's form line: 10W 16D 27L from 53 games, 0.87 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Wolfsberger AC are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SCR Altach.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wolfsberger AC have posted 1.08 PPG from 26 outings (8W 4D 14L).
On the road, SCR Altach have gone 4W 8D 14L from 26 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.85 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 20W 10D 23L in their last 53 games (1.32 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 10W 16D 27L in their last 53 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or SCR Altach away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.08 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2026, when Wolfsberger AC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wolfsberger AC
4
Draws
3
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, SCR Altach have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when SCR Altach 1-4 Wolfsberger AC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 69%, SCR Altach 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Wolfsberger AC and 58% for SCR Altach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SCR Altach in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play SCR Altach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 46% of SCR Altach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 58% of SCR Altach's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 22, as Wolfsberger AC and SCR Altach drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.85 xG and SCR Altach 0.99 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.19 / defence 1.06 against SCR Altach attack 0.88 / defence 1.17, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 58% | Draw 23% | SCR Altach 20%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 68%, SCR Altach 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
SCR Altach's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SCR Altach (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.