Wolfsberger AC 1-0 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Lask Linz travel to Lavanttal Arena to take on Wolfsberger AC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 March 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Wolfsberger AC have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lavanttal Arena, Wolfsberger AC have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lask Linz stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wolfsberger AC 1.90 PPG, Lask Linz 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Wolfsberger AC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lask Linz in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Wolfsberger AC, 0 for Lask Linz and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Lask Linz trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 52% versus Lask Linz 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 67% | Lask Linz 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.65 xG and Lask Linz 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.153 / defence 1.124 | Lask Linz attack 1.113 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.294. Lask Linz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Wolfsberger AC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Wolfsberger AC games / 21 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 38% | Draw 26% | Lask Linz 36%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Lask Linz 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 60% | Lask Linz 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 38% | Draw 26% | Lask Linz 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.65 / Lask Linz 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.153 / def 1.124 | Lask Linz attack 1.113 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.163 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Lask Linz xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Wolfsberger AC 1 - 0 Lask Linz.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 38% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz?
Record (1 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 1W | Draws 0 | Lask Linz 0W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Lask Linz (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wolfsberger AC's attack rating (1.15) and Lask Linz's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
38%
2.66
26%
3.80
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
3.27
1.62
Lask Linz xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
7%
13.44
7%
14.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.62 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 10W 4D 7L from 21 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lask Linz, meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 8L across 21 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wolfsberger AC by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lask Linz heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 6W 1D 3L from 10 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lask Linz's away record stands at 3W 3D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 10W 4D 7L in their last 21 games (1.62 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 6W 7D 8L in their last 21 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Lask Linz away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.90 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Lask Linz won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Wolfsberger AC
0
Draws
3
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 7, Lask Linz have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Lask Linz 3-1 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Wolfsberger AC at 60%, Lask Linz at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Wolfsberger AC and 60% for Lask Linz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 70% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 60% of Lask Linz's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wolfsberger AC edge out Lask Linz 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Lask Linz 1-0 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.65 xG and Lask Linz 1.62 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lask Linz landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.15 / defence 1.12 against Lask Linz attack 1.11 / defence 1.23, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 38% | Draw 26% | Lask Linz 36%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 67%, Lask Linz 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Lask Linz's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.