Wolfsberger AC 0-1 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Lustenau make the trip to Lavanttal Arena to face Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 March 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Wolfsberger AC's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's home record at Lavanttal Arena: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Austria Lustenau have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Lustenau have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 100% of their games, Austria Lustenau in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wolfsberger AC lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 3–1 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Austria Lustenau — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 90% and Austria Lustenau 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wolfsberger AC 90% | Austria Lustenau 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.75 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.984 / defence 1.248 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.661 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.407. Austria Lustenau bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Wolfsberger AC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Wolfsberger AC games / 20 Austria Lustenau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 51% | Draw 24% | Austria Lustenau 25%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Austria Lustenau 4.00. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 100% | Austria Lustenau 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 51% | Draw 24% | Austria Lustenau 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.75 / Austria Lustenau 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.984 / def 1.248 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.661 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Austria Lustenau xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau?
Wolfsberger AC 0 - 1 Austria Lustenau.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 51% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau?
Record (1 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 1W | Draws 0 | Austria Lustenau 0W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Austria Lustenau (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wolfsberger AC's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Austria Lustenau's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Austria Lustenau's attack (0.66x) against Wolfsberger AC's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 42/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.24
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.91
1.16
Austria Lustenau xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
4%
22.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.16 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 20 outings, Wolfsberger AC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 6W 2D 12L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Lustenau's form line: 5W 6D 9L from 20 games, 1.05 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Wolfsberger AC against 1.05 for Austria Lustenau. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Wolfsberger AC have posted 0.40 PPG from 10 outings (1W 1D 8L). That actually lags their 1.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Austria Lustenau have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Austria Lustenau's season.
Attack vs Defence
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.20 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 90% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Austria Lustenau
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 6W 2D 12L in their last 20 games (1.00 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 5W 6D 9L in their last 20 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Austria Lustenau away?
Austria Lustenau's away record (0.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 0.40 PPG; Austria Lustenau away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wolfsberger AC have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Lustenau — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Wolfsberger AC
3
Draws
2
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau?
From 9 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, Austria Lustenau have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2024, when Austria Lustenau 1-2 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Wolfsberger AC, 60% for Austria Lustenau — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 90% for Wolfsberger AC and 50% for Austria Lustenau. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Lustenau in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Austria Lustenau?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 60% of Austria Lustenau's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Lustenau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 90% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 50% of Austria Lustenau's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Austria Lustenau tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Austria Lustenau in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Austria Lustenau defy the odds to beat Wolfsberger AC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Lustenau beat Wolfsberger AC 0-1 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.75 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.16 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Wolfsberger AC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 0.98 / defence 1.25 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.66 / defence 1.27, drawn from 42/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 51% | Draw 24% | Austria Lustenau 25%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Austria Lustenau win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 90%, Austria Lustenau 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 90% of their matches — today it did not.
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.00 PPG, Austria Lustenau 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Lustenau win broke the near-deadlock. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.