TSV Hartberg 2-1 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Hartberg plays host to TSV Hartberg versus WSG Wattens in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 13 December 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
TSV Hartberg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadion Hartberg — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
WSG Wattens's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for TSV Hartberg, 1.20 for WSG Wattens — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, WSG Wattens in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across 9 previous meetings, TSV Hartberg are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 2, with 2 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 2–4 with WSG Wattens winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both TSV Hartberg and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 54% versus WSG Wattens 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 48% | WSG Wattens 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.29 xG and WSG Wattens 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.002 / defence 0.892 | WSG Wattens attack 0.940 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.384. Data: 38 TSV Hartberg games / 38 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 39% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 33%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | WSG Wattens 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: TSV Hartberg 60% | WSG Wattens 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 39% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.29 / WSG Wattens 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 1.002 / def 0.892 | WSG Wattens attack 0.940 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.16
WSG Wattens xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at Stadion Hartberg.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
TSV Hartberg 2 - 1 WSG Wattens.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens part of?
TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 39% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens?
Record (9 meetings): TSV Hartberg 5W | Draws 2 | WSG Wattens 2W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from TSV Hartberg's attack rating (1.00) and WSG Wattens's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — WSG Wattens's attack (0.94x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
39%
2.54
27%
3.66
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.45
1.16
WSG Wattens xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
9%
10.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.16 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 48 games, going 17W 16D 15L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, WSG Wattens sit at 1.06 PPG from 48 outings (12W 15D 21L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for TSV Hartberg against 1.06 for WSG Wattens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 8W 7D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, WSG Wattens have taken 0.95 points per game from 22 outings (5W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, TSV Hartberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.21 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 17W 16D 15L in their last 48 games (1.40 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 12W 15D 21L in their last 48 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or WSG Wattens away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.41 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: TSV Hartberg won 5-0 on 6 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
2
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 6, WSG Wattens have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when TSV Hartberg 2-1 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 64%, WSG Wattens 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (TSV Hartberg) and 59% (WSG Wattens).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play WSG Wattens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of TSV Hartberg's games and 59% of WSG Wattens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 59% of WSG Wattens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as TSV Hartberg edge out WSG Wattens 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat WSG Wattens 2-1 at Stadion Hartberg, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.29 xG and WSG Wattens 1.16 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 1.00 / defence 0.89 against WSG Wattens attack 0.94 / defence 0.95, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 39% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 33%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 48%, WSG Wattens 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (48 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (48 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.40 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.