TSV Hartberg 1-0 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PROfertil ARENA plays host to TSV Hartberg versus WSG Wattens in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Thursday 26 September 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
TSV Hartberg have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 1W 3D 6L at PROfertil ARENA — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
WSG Wattens's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. WSG Wattens have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
WSG Wattens's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for TSV Hartberg, 0.60 for WSG Wattens — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, WSG Wattens in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: TSV Hartberg 2W, WSG Wattens 1W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with WSG Wattens winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 60% versus WSG Wattens 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 63% | WSG Wattens 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.60 xG and WSG Wattens 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.817 / defence 1.027 | WSG Wattens attack 1.017 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.230. Data: 27 TSV Hartberg games / 28 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 44% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 30%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | WSG Wattens 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 80% | WSG Wattens 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Sep 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 44% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.60 / WSG Wattens 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.817 / def 1.027 | WSG Wattens attack 1.017 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.631 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.28
WSG Wattens xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 26 September 2024 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 0 WSG Wattens.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens part of?
TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 44% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens?
Record (4 meetings): TSV Hartberg 2W | Draws 1 | WSG Wattens 1W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. WSG Wattens (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from TSV Hartberg's attack rating (0.82) and WSG Wattens's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — WSG Wattens's attack (1.02x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 27/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
44%
2.29
27%
3.76
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.88
1.28
WSG Wattens xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
6%
16.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.28 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 11D 15L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, WSG Wattens sit at 0.82 PPG from 38 outings (8W 7D 23L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for WSG Wattens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
TSV Hartberg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 6W 5D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, WSG Wattens have taken 0.74 points per game from 19 outings (4W 2D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, TSV Hartberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 0.87 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
WSG Wattens
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 8W 7D 23L in their last 38 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or WSG Wattens away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.21 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: TSV Hartberg won 5-0 on 6 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
2
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 6, WSG Wattens have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when TSV Hartberg 2-1 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 58%, WSG Wattens 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (TSV Hartberg) and 58% (WSG Wattens). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 26% of games; WSG Wattens in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play WSG Wattens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 47% of WSG Wattens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is TSV Hartberg vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 58% of WSG Wattens's.
Do TSV Hartberg and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as TSV Hartberg edge out WSG Wattens 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat WSG Wattens 1-0 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.60 xG and WSG Wattens 1.28 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. WSG Wattens landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.82 / defence 1.03 against WSG Wattens attack 1.02 / defence 1.20, drawn from 27/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 44% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 30%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 63%, WSG Wattens 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.