TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach meet at Stadion Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stadion Hartberg — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Hartberg this season.
SCR Altach (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SCR Altach have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across 10 previous meetings, TSV Hartberg are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 0, with 5 draws in between.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 10 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 2–1 with TSV Hartberg winning.
The historical record gives TSV Hartberg a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 56% versus SCR Altach 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 51% | SCR Altach 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.99 xG and SCR Altach 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.095 / defence 1.333 | SCR Altach attack 0.549 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.304. Data: 31 TSV Hartberg games / 31 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 59% | Draw 26% | SCR Altach 15%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | SCR Altach 6.67. The model has a clear lean to TSV Hartberg (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 70% | SCR Altach 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 59% | Draw 26% | SCR Altach 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.99 / SCR Altach 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 1.095 / def 1.333 | SCR Altach attack 0.549 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.806 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
0.95
SCR Altach xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Stadion Hartberg.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach part of?
TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 59% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach?
Record (10 meetings): TSV Hartberg 5W | Draws 5 | SCR Altach 0W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from TSV Hartberg's attack rating (1.09) and SCR Altach's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.55x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
59%
1.70
26%
3.79
15%
6.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.94
0.95
SCR Altach xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
6.72
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
14%
7.28
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
2%
48.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 0.95 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 14D 14L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SCR Altach sit at 1.17 PPG from 41 outings (12W 12D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for TSV Hartberg against 1.17 for SCR Altach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 6W 6D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, SCR Altach have taken 0.57 points per game from 21 outings (2W 6D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SCR Altach's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, TSV Hartberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 1.07 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 13W 14D 14L in their last 41 games (1.29 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 12W 12D 17L in their last 41 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or SCR Altach away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.14 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
TSV Hartberg
5
Draws
0
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 5, SCR Altach have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when SCR Altach 1-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 62%, SCR Altach 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (TSV Hartberg) and 48% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 29% of games; SCR Altach in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 29% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 48% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.