TSV Hartberg 1-1 Grazer AK – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK meet at PROfertil ARENA in Bundesliga (Relegation Round - 6). This fixture gets under way on Friday 25 April 2025 at 19:30 UK time.

Current Form

TSV Hartberg's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

TSV Hartberg's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Grazer AK have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Grazer AK's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward TSV Hartberg. A 0.60 PPG lead over Grazer AK (1.20 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from TSV Hartberg's last 10 home games and Grazer AK's last 10 away games) — TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Grazer AK in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for TSV Hartberg, 0 for Grazer AK and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Apr 2025, ended TSV Hartberg 3–0 Grazer AK — a TSV Hartberg win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Grazer AK half-time and goal-timing data (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 59% versus Grazer AK 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 52% | Grazer AK 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.80 xG and Grazer AK 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.854 / defence 1.067 | Grazer AK attack 0.928 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. Grazer AK's defence rating of 1.318 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing TSV Hartberg's projected output up. Data: built from TSV Hartberg's last 44 games and Grazer AK's last 22.

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 49% | Draw 28% | Grazer AK 23%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.04 | Draw 3.53 | Grazer AK 4.42. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.80 / 1.19) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (TSV Hartberg's last 10 home games and Grazer AK's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: TSV Hartberg 60% (last 10 home games) | Grazer AK 60% (last 10 away games).

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