Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 34% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Merkur-Arena to take on Sturm Graz. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sturm Graz stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sturm Graz have posted 5W 5D 0L at Merkur-Arena — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merkur-Arena.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Sturm Graz have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 10 past contests while TSV Hartberg have managed just 0 wins.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2026, ended 2–0 with Sturm Graz winning.
The historical record gives Sturm Graz a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 57% versus TSV Hartberg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 38% | TSV Hartberg 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.06 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.847 / defence 0.893 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.998 / defence 0.768. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.158. TSV Hartberg's defence strength of 0.768 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 27 Sturm Graz games / 27 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 34% | Draw 33% | TSV Hartberg 33%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | TSV Hartberg 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 34% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 40% | TSV Hartberg 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 34% | Draw 33% | TSV Hartberg 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Sturm Graz 1.06 / TSV Hartberg 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 0.847 / def 0.893 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.998 / def 0.768 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.03
TSV Hartberg xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Merkur-Arena.
Where is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 34% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
Record (10 meetings): Sturm Graz 7W | Draws 3 | TSV Hartberg 0W.
What form are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 0.85x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
34%
2.92
33%
3.05
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.09
1.03
TSV Hartberg xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.03 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 18W 10D 9L from 37 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 13L across 37 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over TSV Hartberg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 7W 6D 5L from 18 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 7W 7D 4L across 18 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.22 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Early Season
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 18W 10D 9L in their last 37 games (1.73 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 12W 12D 13L in their last 37 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 1.50 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Sturm Graz have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
0
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 7, TSV Hartberg have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when TSV Hartberg 0-2 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sturm Graz see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
TSV Hartberg see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 56%, TSV Hartberg 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 28% for Sturm Graz and 39% for TSV Hartberg.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 39%; TSV Hartberg in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 44% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 39% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.