Sturm Graz 2-0 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sturm Graz face Austria Klagenfurt.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur Arena plays host to Sturm Graz versus Austria Klagenfurt in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sturm Graz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Merkur Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merkur Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Austria Klagenfurt (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Austria Klagenfurt's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Sturm Graz's favour (1.90 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Sturm Graz, who have won 5 of the last 7 meetings against Austria Klagenfurt — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2024, ended 4–0 with Sturm Graz winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sturm Graz and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Sturm Graz — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Austria Klagenfurt — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 56% versus Austria Klagenfurt 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 49% | Austria Klagenfurt 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.45 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.158 / defence 0.857 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.023 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Data: 44 Sturm Graz games / 44 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 49% | Draw 29% | Austria Klagenfurt 22%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Austria Klagenfurt 4.55. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 30% | Austria Klagenfurt 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 10 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 49% | Draw 29% | Austria Klagenfurt 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Sturm Graz 1.45 / Austria Klagenfurt 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.158 / def 0.857 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.023 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Austria Klagenfurt xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Sturm Graz 2 - 0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Championship Round - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 49% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt?
Record (7 meetings): Sturm Graz 5W | Draws 1 | Austria Klagenfurt 1W.
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Austria Klagenfurt's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Austria Klagenfurt's attack (1.02x) against Sturm Graz's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
49%
2.05
29%
3.41
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.33
0.89
Austria Klagenfurt xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
5%
19.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.4 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 0.89 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz come into this having played 63 games, going 38W 16D 9L for 2.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, Austria Klagenfurt sit at 1.22 PPG from 63 outings (20W 17D 26L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Austria Klagenfurt — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sturm Graz's home form reads 21W 5D 5L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Klagenfurt have taken 1.29 points per game from 31 outings (11W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.35 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Current Season
Austria Klagenfurt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 38W 16D 9L in their last 63 games (2.06 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 20W 17D 26L in their last 63 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.19 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Austria Klagenfurt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Austria Klagenfurt in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sturm Graz go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 7-0 on 23 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Klagenfurt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sturm Graz
1
Draws
1
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 8, Austria Klagenfurt have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when Sturm Graz 7-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 45%, Austria Klagenfurt 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Sturm Graz) and 71% (Austria Klagenfurt). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 61% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Austria Klagenfurt?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 64% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sturm Graz vs Austria Klagenfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Sturm Graz's matches and 71% of Austria Klagenfurt's.
Do Sturm Graz and Austria Klagenfurt tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Austria Klagenfurt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Austria Klagenfurt 2-0 at Merkur Arena, Championship Round - 10, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.45 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.89 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.16 / defence 0.86 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.02 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 49% | Draw 29% | Austria Klagenfurt 22%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 49%, Austria Klagenfurt 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.