SCR Altach 0-1 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 14 as SCR Altach welcome Sturm Graz to CASHPOINT Arena. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 1 December 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SCR Altach stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at CASHPOINT Arena, SCR Altach have gone 1W 2D 5L this season (8 games, 0.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.43 PPG). They are averaging 2.14 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sturm Graz are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for SCR Altach, 1 for Sturm Graz and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 1–3 with Sturm Graz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SCR Altach in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 40% versus Sturm Graz 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 40% | Sturm Graz 87%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 0.94 xG and Sturm Graz 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.559 / defence 1.456 | Sturm Graz attack 1.074 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.355. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.559 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sturm Graz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.360 — this is suppressing SCR Altach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 SCR Altach games / 15 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 15% | Draw 21% | Sturm Graz 64%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 6.67 | Draw 4.76 | Sturm Graz 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Sturm Graz (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 50% | Sturm Graz 86% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Dec 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 15% | Draw 21% | Sturm Graz 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 54% | xG SCR Altach 0.94 / Sturm Graz 2.12 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.559 / def 1.456 | Sturm Graz attack 1.074 / def 1.360 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
2.12
Sturm Graz xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz kick off?
SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 1 December 2021 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
SCR Altach 0 - 1 Sturm Graz.
Where is SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz part of?
SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 15% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 64% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SCR Altach and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Sturm Graz?
Record (1 meetings): SCR Altach 0W | Draws 0 | Sturm Graz 1W.
What form are SCR Altach and Sturm Graz in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Sturm Graz (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 0.56x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 2.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.6%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
15%
6.73
21%
4.66
64%
1.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
3.06
2.12
Sturm Graz xG
6.73
15%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
1.57
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
12%
8.32
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
2%
56.05
25%
4.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 10.0 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for SCR Altach and 2.12 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach come into this having played 15 games, going 3W 4D 8L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sturm Graz sit at 1.60 PPG from 15 outings (7W 3D 5L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SCR Altach's home form reads 1W 2D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Sturm Graz have taken 1.43 points per game from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 2.13 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz in 73%.
Last 15 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 3W 4D 8L in their last 15 games (0.87 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 7W 3D 5L in their last 15 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.71 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sturm Graz have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2022, when Sturm Graz won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SCR Altach
2
Draws
8
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Sturm Graz 2-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SCR Altach at 57%, Sturm Graz at 86%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for SCR Altach and 86% for Sturm Graz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of SCR Altach's games and 86% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of SCR Altach's matches and 86% of Sturm Graz's.
Do SCR Altach and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out SCR Altach 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat SCR Altach 0-1 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 0.94 xG and Sturm Graz 2.12 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SCR Altach fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Sturm Graz landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.56 / defence 1.46 against Sturm Graz attack 1.07 / defence 1.36, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 15% | Draw 21% | Sturm Graz 64%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 40%, Sturm Graz 87%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. SCR Altach (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.