SCR Altach 2-2 Grazer AK – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SCR Altach face Grazer AK.

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Full Analysis

CASHPOINT Arena plays host to SCR Altach versus Grazer AK in Bundesliga (Relegation Round - 8). Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025 at 17:00 UK time.

Current Form

SCR Altach's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

At home, SCR Altach have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Grazer AK (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Grazer AK away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from SCR Altach's last 10 home games and Grazer AK's last 10 away games) — SCR Altach have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Grazer AK in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Grazer AK edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Apr 2025, ended SCR Altach 0–1 Grazer AK — a Grazer AK win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

SCR Altach half-time and goal-timing data (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Grazer AK half-time and goal-timing data (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 52% versus Grazer AK 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 45% | Grazer AK 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.63 xG and Grazer AK 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.780 / defence 0.994 | Grazer AK attack 0.921 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. SCR Altach's attack rating of 0.780 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.63. Grazer AK's defence rating of 1.306 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SCR Altach's projected output up. Data: built from SCR Altach's last 44 games and Grazer AK's last 22.

Result probabilities: SCR Altach 47% | Draw 30% | Grazer AK 23%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.13 | Draw 3.30 | Grazer AK 4.37. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SCR Altach at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SCR Altach 60% (last 10 home games) | Grazer AK 60% (last 10 away games).

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