SCR Altach 2-2 Admira Wacker – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Admira Wacker at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Relegation Round - 3 as SCR Altach welcome Admira Wacker to CASHPOINT Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SCR Altach stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at CASHPOINT Arena, SCR Altach have gone 0W 3D 7L this season (10 games, 0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Admira Wacker — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Admira Wacker, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Admira Wacker's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Admira Wacker are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for SCR Altach, 2 for Admira Wacker and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with Admira Wacker winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
SCR Altach in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
Admira Wacker in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 33% versus Admira Wacker 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 42% | Admira Wacker 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 0.73 xG and Admira Wacker 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.574 / defence 1.384 | Admira Wacker attack 0.893 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.237. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.574 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 SCR Altach games / 22 Admira Wacker games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 18% | Draw 26% | Admira Wacker 56%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 5.56 | Draw 3.85 | Admira Wacker 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Admira Wacker (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Admira Wacker as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 30% | Admira Wacker 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 18% | Draw 26% | Admira Wacker 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 41% | xG SCR Altach 0.73 / Admira Wacker 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.574 / def 1.384 | Admira Wacker attack 0.893 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Admira Wacker (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Admira Wacker xG
41%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker kick off?
SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker?
SCR Altach 2 - 2 Admira Wacker.
Where is SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker part of?
SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 18% chance of winning, Admira Wacker a 56% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Admira Wacker the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both SCR Altach and Admira Wacker will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Admira Wacker?
Record (2 meetings): SCR Altach 0W | Draws 0 | Admira Wacker 2W.
What form are SCR Altach and Admira Wacker in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Admira Wacker (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 0.57x the league average against Admira Wacker's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 0.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Admira Wacker's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 0-2 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Admira Wacker Win
18%
5.63
26%
3.88
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.2%
Away win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.26
1.53
Admira Wacker xG
5.63
18%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
48%
2.07
Win to Nil
4%
25.98
27%
3.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 16.0 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Admira Wacker expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.53 for Admira Wacker, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 24 outings, SCR Altach have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 4W 5D 15L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Admira Wacker's form line: 5W 9D 10L from 24 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Admira Wacker is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SCR Altach on 0.71 PPG, Admira Wacker on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SCR Altach have posted 0.50 PPG from 12 outings (1W 3D 8L).
On the road, Admira Wacker have gone 2W 7D 3L from 12 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Admira Wacker come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SCR Altach are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Admira Wacker are on 1.12 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Admira Wacker
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Admira Wacker in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 4W 5D 15L in their last 24 games (0.71 PPG), while Admira Wacker have gone 5W 9D 10L in their last 24 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Admira Wacker away?
Admira Wacker's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.50 PPG; Admira Wacker away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SCR Altach and Admira Wacker runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2022, when SCR Altach won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Admira Wacker specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
SCR Altach
1
Draws
2
Admira Wacker
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Admira Wacker?
From 4 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 1, Admira Wacker have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Admira Wacker last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2022, when Admira Wacker 0-3 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Admira Wacker?
Admira Wacker have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Admira Wacker are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 33%, Admira Wacker 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (SCR Altach) and 50% (Admira Wacker).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Admira Wacker away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Admira Wacker?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 67% of Admira Wacker's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs Admira Wacker usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of SCR Altach's recent games and 50% of Admira Wacker's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Admira Wacker tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Admira Wacker in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach and Admira Wacker share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach and Admira Wacker finished level at 2-2 at CASHPOINT Arena, Relegation Round - 3, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 0.73 xG and Admira Wacker 1.53 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. SCR Altach beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.57 / defence 1.38 against Admira Wacker attack 0.89 / defence 1.10, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 18% | Draw 26% | Admira Wacker 56%, with Admira Wacker to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 42%, Admira Wacker 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Admira Wacker's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.71 PPG, Admira Wacker 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.42 average — above their attacking norm. Admira Wacker (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.