Ried 2-1 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates WSG Wattens at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ried vs WSG Wattens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ried and WSG Wattens meet at Innviertel Arena in Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ried have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Innviertel Arena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
WSG Wattens's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Ried, 1.70 for WSG Wattens — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
WSG Wattens hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that WSG Wattens have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Ried half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
WSG Wattens half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ried 50% versus WSG Wattens 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 46% | WSG Wattens 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.07 xG and WSG Wattens 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.782 / defence 1.061 | WSG Wattens attack 1.071 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Ried's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Ried games / 44 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 30% | Draw 29% | WSG Wattens 41%. Fair-value odds: Ried 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | WSG Wattens 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates WSG Wattens as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ried 30% | WSG Wattens 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 23 | Venue: Innviertel Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 30% | Draw 29% | WSG Wattens 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Ried 1.07 / WSG Wattens 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 0.782 / def 1.061 | WSG Wattens attack 1.071 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.30
WSG Wattens xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Ried vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Innviertel Arena.
What was the final score in Ried vs WSG Wattens?
Ried 2 - 1 WSG Wattens.
Where is Ried vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Innviertel Arena.
What competition is Ried vs WSG Wattens part of?
Ried vs WSG Wattens is a Relegation Group - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 30% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ried and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and WSG Wattens?
Record (8 meetings): Ried 1W | Draws 3 | WSG Wattens 4W.
What form are Ried and WSG Wattens in?
Ried (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. WSG Wattens (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ried's attack at 0.78x the league average against WSG Wattens's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — WSG Wattens's attack (1.07x) against Ried's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 22/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
30%
3.35
29%
3.43
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Ried xG
Total xG
2.38
1.30
WSG Wattens xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
8%
12.33
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Ried and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Ried and 1.30 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ried come into this having played 22 games, going 8W 4D 10L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, WSG Wattens sit at 1.41 PPG from 22 outings (8W 7D 7L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Ried against 1.41 for WSG Wattens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ried's home form reads 4W 3D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, WSG Wattens have taken 1.18 points per game from 11 outings (3W 4D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ried are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.41 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: WSG Wattens in 64%.
Last 22 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 8W 4D 10L in their last 22 games (1.27 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 8W 7D 7L in their last 22 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or WSG Wattens away?
Ried's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 1.36 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ried have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Ried
3
Draws
5
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, Ried have won 2, WSG Wattens have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ried and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when WSG Wattens 1-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Ried and WSG Wattens?
WSG Wattens have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ried 36%, WSG Wattens 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Ried) and 46% (WSG Wattens).
On the defensive side: Ried keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Ried have failed to score in 36% of games; WSG Wattens in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play WSG Wattens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Ried's recent matches and 64% of WSG Wattens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ried vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Ried's recent games and 46% of WSG Wattens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ried and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ried defy the odds to beat WSG Wattens 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ried beat WSG Wattens 2-1 at Innviertel Arena, Relegation Group - 23, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.07 xG and WSG Wattens 1.30 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ried beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.78 / defence 1.06 against WSG Wattens attack 1.07 / defence 1.02, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 30% | Draw 29% | WSG Wattens 41%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Ried win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 46%, WSG Wattens 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ried 1.27 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ried win broke the near-deadlock. Ried (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.