Ried 1-0 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ried vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Wolfsberger AC travel to Innviertel Arena to take on Ried. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Ried have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried's home record at Innviertel Arena: 2W 2D 3L from 7 Bundesliga appearances (1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ried 1.30 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Ried, 3 for Wolfsberger AC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Ried winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ried trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ried 50% versus Wolfsberger AC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 50% | Wolfsberger AC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.17 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.787 / defence 1.072 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.230 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.402. Ried's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Wolfsberger AC have an above-average attack strength of 1.230 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 14 Ried games / 36 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 24% | Draw 23% | Wolfsberger AC 53%. Fair-value odds: Ried 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | Wolfsberger AC 1.89. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wolfsberger AC at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ried 43% | Wolfsberger AC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Innviertel Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 24% | Draw 23% | Wolfsberger AC 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Ried 1.17 / Wolfsberger AC 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 0.787 / def 1.072 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.230 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Wolfsberger AC xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Ried vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Innviertel Arena.
What was the final score in Ried vs Wolfsberger AC?
Ried 1 - 0 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Ried vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Innviertel Arena.
What competition is Ried vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Ried vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 24% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Ried and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (6 meetings): Ried 2W | Draws 1 | Wolfsberger AC 3W.
What form are Ried and Wolfsberger AC in?
Ried (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ried's attack rating (0.79) and Wolfsberger AC's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus Ried's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
24%
4.16
23%
4.40
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Ried xG
Total xG
3.02
1.85
Wolfsberger AC xG
4.16
24%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
16%
6.35
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
4%
26.46
17%
6.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Ried and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Ried and 1.85 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 14 outings, Ried have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 5W 2D 7L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 6W 3D 5L from 14 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ried on 1.21 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ried have posted 1.17 PPG from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ried are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.57 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 5W 2D 7L in their last 14 games (1.21 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 6W 3D 5L in their last 14 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 1.17 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ried and Wolfsberger AC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 19 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ried's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ried
2
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ried have won 4, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ried and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Ried 2-1 Wolfsberger AC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ried 33%, Wolfsberger AC 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Ried) and 67% (Wolfsberger AC).
On the defensive side: Ried keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ried have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Ried's games and 83% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ried vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ried's recent games and 67% of Wolfsberger AC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ried and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ried defy the odds to beat Wolfsberger AC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ried beat Wolfsberger AC 1-0 at Innviertel Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.17 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.85 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wolfsberger AC landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.79 / defence 1.07 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.23 / defence 1.08, drawn from 14/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 24% | Draw 23% | Wolfsberger AC 53%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Ried win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 50%, Wolfsberger AC 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ried 1.21 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ried win broke the near-deadlock. Ried (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.