Ried 1-2 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ried vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Relegation Round - 10 sees Wolfsberger AC travel to josko ARENA to take on Ried. The game is scheduled for Friday 2 June 2023, 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Ried have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ried's home record at josko ARENA: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Wolfsberger AC are 1.30 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ried, 2 for Wolfsberger AC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Ried trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ried 62% and Wolfsberger AC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 44% | Wolfsberger AC 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.04 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.817 / defence 1.000 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.017 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.339. Data: 44 Ried games / 44 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 29% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 44%. Fair-value odds: Ried 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Wolfsberger AC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wolfsberger AC at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ried 60% | Wolfsberger AC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 10 | Venue: josko ARENA • Kick-off: Friday 2 Jun 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 29% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Ried 1.04 / Wolfsberger AC 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 0.817 / def 1.000 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.017 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Wolfsberger AC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Ried vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 2 June 2023 at josko ARENA.
What was the final score in Ried vs Wolfsberger AC?
Ried 1 - 2 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Ried vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at josko ARENA.
What competition is Ried vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Ried vs Wolfsberger AC is a Relegation Round - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 29% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ried and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (4 meetings): Ried 1W | Draws 1 | Wolfsberger AC 2W.
What form are Ried and Wolfsberger AC in?
Ried (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ried's attack rating (0.82) and Wolfsberger AC's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus Ried's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
29%
3.48
27%
3.68
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Ried xG
Total xG
2.41
1.36
Wolfsberger AC xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
7%
13.57
15%
6.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ried and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Ried and 1.36 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 63 outings, Ried have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 12W 24D 27L record — D-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 25W 11D 27L from 63 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Wolfsberger AC are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ried.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ried have posted 1.23 PPG from 31 outings (8W 14D 9L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 14W 5D 12L from 31 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ried are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.54 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Wolfsberger AC in 63%.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Current Season
Wolfsberger AC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 12W 24D 27L in their last 63 games (0.95 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 25W 11D 27L in their last 63 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 1.23 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ried and Wolfsberger AC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 19 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ried's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ried
2
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ried have won 4, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ried and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Ried 2-1 Wolfsberger AC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ried 71%, Wolfsberger AC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Ried and 71% for Wolfsberger AC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Ried's games and 58% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ried vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Ried's matches and 71% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Ried and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wolfsberger AC edge out Ried 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Ried 1-2 at josko ARENA, Relegation Round - 10, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.04 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.36 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.82 / defence 1.00 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.02 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 29% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 44%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 44%, Wolfsberger AC 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.