Ried 0-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ried at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ried vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
josko ARENA plays host to Ried versus TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 9 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ried have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried at josko ARENA this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Ried are significantly better at josko ARENA than their overall form suggests.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Ried. A 0.50 PPG lead over TSV Hartberg (1.20 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Ried 1W, TSV Hartberg 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Ried winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Ried — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ried 72% and TSV Hartberg 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 60% | TSV Hartberg 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.75 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 1.169 / defence 1.270 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.719 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.237. TSV Hartberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Ried's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Ried games / 22 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 52% | Draw 24% | TSV Hartberg 25%. Fair-value odds: Ried 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | TSV Hartberg 4.00. Ried hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ried are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ried if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ried 80% | TSV Hartberg 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: josko ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 52% | Draw 24% | TSV Hartberg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Ried 1.75 / TSV Hartberg 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 1.169 / def 1.270 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.719 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Ried (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.13
TSV Hartberg xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Ried vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at josko ARENA.
What was the final score in Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Ried 0 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Ried vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at josko ARENA.
What competition is Ried vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Ried vs TSV Hartberg is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 52% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ried the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ried and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and TSV Hartberg?
Record (2 meetings): Ried 1W | Draws 1 | TSV Hartberg 0W.
What form are Ried and TSV Hartberg in?
Ried (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ried's attack rating (1.17) and TSV Hartberg's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.72x) against Ried's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ried Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.24
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Ried xG
Total xG
2.88
1.13
TSV Hartberg xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
17%
5.76
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
4%
23.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Ried and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Ried and 1.13 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ried come into this having played 25 games, going 8W 8D 9L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 0.96 PPG from 25 outings (5W 9D 11L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Ried against 0.96 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Ried's home form reads 6W 5D 1L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — Ried are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.08 points per game from 12 outings (3W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ried come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ried are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.16 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 8W 8D 9L in their last 25 games (1.28 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 5W 9D 11L in their last 25 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Ried's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 1.92 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
TSV Hartberg go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ried have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Ried
3
Draws
6
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Ried have won 1, TSV Hartberg have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ried and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when TSV Hartberg 2-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Ried and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Ried, 50% for TSV Hartberg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Ried) and 42% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Ried's games and 50% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ried vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Ried's matches and 42% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Ried and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ried's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at josko ARENA, Relegation Round - 4, as Ried and TSV Hartberg drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.75 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.13 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ried fell 1.8 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 1.17 / defence 1.27 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.72 / defence 1.30, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 52% | Draw 24% | TSV Hartberg 25%, with Ried to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 60%, TSV Hartberg 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ried 1.28 PPG, TSV Hartberg 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ried (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.