Ried 1-0 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rapid Vienna at 63% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ried vs Rapid Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 12 as Ried welcome Rapid Vienna to josko ARENA. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Ried have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried at josko ARENA this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rapid Vienna stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Rapid Vienna — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Ried have won 0, Rapid Vienna 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2022, ended 0–1 with Rapid Vienna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ried trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Rapid Vienna trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ried 65% and Rapid Vienna 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 49% | Rapid Vienna 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 0.89 xG and Rapid Vienna 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.900 / defence 1.087 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.087 / defence 0.734. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.770. Rapid Vienna's defence strength of 0.734 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 33 Ried games / 32 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 13% | Draw 25% | Rapid Vienna 63%. Fair-value odds: Ried 7.69 | Draw 4.00 | Rapid Vienna 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Rapid Vienna (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rapid Vienna at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Ried 70% | Rapid Vienna 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: josko ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 13% | Draw 25% | Rapid Vienna 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 54% | xG Ried 0.89 / Rapid Vienna 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 0.900 / def 1.087 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.087 / def 0.734 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.770 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Ried xG
Expected Goals
2.09
Rapid Vienna xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Ried vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at josko ARENA.
What was the final score in Ried vs Rapid Vienna?
Ried 1 - 0 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Ried vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at josko ARENA.
What competition is Ried vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Ried vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 13% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 63% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ried and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Rapid Vienna?
Record (3 meetings): Ried 0W | Draws 1 | Rapid Vienna 2W.
What form are Ried and Rapid Vienna in?
Ried (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ried's attack at 0.90x the league average against Rapid Vienna's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus Ried's defence, projects 2.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
13%
7.90
25%
4.04
63%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Ried xG
Total xG
2.98
2.09
Rapid Vienna xG
7.90
13%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
1.60
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
12%
8.08
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
2%
63.86
26%
3.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Ried and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Ried and 2.09 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs Rapid Vienna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Ried have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 10W 15D 18L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rapid Vienna's form line: 16W 13D 14L from 43 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ried on 1.05 PPG, Rapid Vienna on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ried have posted 1.43 PPG from 21 outings (7W 9D 5L).
On the road, Rapid Vienna have gone 7W 7D 7L from 21 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ried are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.53 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Rapid Vienna in 70%.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 10W 15D 18L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 16W 13D 14L in their last 43 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Ried's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 1.43 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ried and Rapid Vienna runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Rapid Vienna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ried's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Ried
1
Draws
4
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Rapid Vienna?
From 8 meetings on record, Ried have won 3, Rapid Vienna have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ried and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Rapid Vienna 3-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Ried and Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ried at 76%, Rapid Vienna at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Ried) and 57% (Rapid Vienna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Ried's games and 76% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ried vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Ried's matches and 57% of Rapid Vienna's.
Do Ried and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ried defy the odds to beat Rapid Vienna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ried beat Rapid Vienna 1-0 at josko ARENA, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 0.89 xG and Rapid Vienna 2.09 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rapid Vienna landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.90 / defence 1.09 against Rapid Vienna attack 1.09 / defence 0.73, drawn from 33/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 13% | Draw 25% | Rapid Vienna 63%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Ried win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 49%, Rapid Vienna 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ried 1.05 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ried win broke the near-deadlock. Ried (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.