Red Bull Salzburg 1-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna meet at Red Bull Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 September 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Red Bull Salzburg have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg's home record at Red Bull Arena: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Red Bull Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Rapid Vienna (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rapid Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Rapid Vienna have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Red Bull Salzburg's favour (2.50 vs 1.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Red Bull Salzburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 45% versus Rapid Vienna 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 60% | Rapid Vienna 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.42 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.233 / defence 0.541 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.826 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.523. Red Bull Salzburg's defence rating of 0.541 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 30 Red Bull Salzburg games / 29 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 53% | Draw 32% | Rapid Vienna 16%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 1.89 | Draw 3.12 | Rapid Vienna 6.25. Red Bull Salzburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Red Bull Salzburg at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Red Bull Salzburg 30% | Rapid Vienna 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 53% | Draw 32% | Rapid Vienna 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.42 / Rapid Vienna 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.233 / def 0.541 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.826 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.523 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Rapid Vienna xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna?
Red Bull Salzburg 1 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 53% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 16% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna in?
Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Red Bull Salzburg's attack rating (1.23) and Rapid Vienna's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (0.83x) against Red Bull Salzburg's defence (0.54x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 30/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
53%
1.90
32%
3.17
16%
6.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.10
0.68
Rapid Vienna xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
6.31
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
4%
25.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 11.9 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 0.68 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Red Bull Salzburg's recent record stands at 32W 5D 3L from 40 games, a 2.52 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rapid Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 13L across 40 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Red Bull Salzburg by 1.10 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rapid Vienna heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Red Bull Salzburg have managed 18W 2D 0L from 20 games — 2.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rapid Vienna's away record stands at 6W 7D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.45 goals scored and 0.55 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.48 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna in 70%.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 32W 5D 3L in their last 40 games (2.52 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 15W 12D 13L in their last 40 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.80 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Rapid Vienna have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rapid Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Red Bull Salzburg
2
Draws
5
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Red Bull Salzburg have won 3, Rapid Vienna have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Rapid Vienna 1-0 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 40%, Rapid Vienna 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Red Bull Salzburg) and 55% (Rapid Vienna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Red Bull Salzburg play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Red Bull Salzburg's games and 80% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Red Bull Salzburg's matches and 55% of Rapid Vienna's.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Red Bull Salzburg have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna finished level at 1-1 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.42 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.68 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.23 / defence 0.54 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.83 / defence 0.81, drawn from 30/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 53% | Draw 32% | Rapid Vienna 16%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 60%, Rapid Vienna 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.