Red Bull Salzburg 0-1 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Red Bull Salzburg at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Lask Linz travel to Red Bull Arena to take on Red Bull Salzburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 October 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Red Bull Salzburg stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Red Bull Arena this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Lask Linz have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Lask Linz have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Red Bull Salzburg 2.30 PPG, Lask Linz 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Red Bull Salzburg in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Lask Linz in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 48% versus Lask Linz 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 52% | Lask Linz 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.38 xG and Lask Linz 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.045 / defence 0.693 | Lask Linz attack 0.965 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.425. Red Bull Salzburg's defence rating of 0.693 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 32 Red Bull Salzburg games / 32 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 44% | Draw 33% | Lask Linz 23%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Lask Linz 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Red Bull Salzburg are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Red Bull Salzburg 50% | Lask Linz 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 44% | Draw 33% | Lask Linz 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.38 / Lask Linz 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.045 / def 0.693 | Lask Linz attack 0.965 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Lask Linz xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz?
Red Bull Salzburg 0 - 1 Lask Linz.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 44% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Lask Linz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Lask Linz in?
Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Lask Linz (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Red Bull Salzburg's attack at 1.04x the league average against Lask Linz's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Red Bull Salzburg's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
44%
2.28
33%
3.02
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.34
0.95
Lask Linz xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
6%
17.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 0.95 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Red Bull Salzburg have picked up 2.38 PPG on a 30W 10D 2L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lask Linz's form line: 19W 15D 8L from 42 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Red Bull Salzburg are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lask Linz.
Venue Form
On home soil, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 2.25 PPG from 20 outings (13W 6D 1L).
On the road, Lask Linz have gone 6W 10D 4L from 20 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.60 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz in 62%.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 30W 10D 2L in their last 42 games (2.38 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 19W 15D 8L in their last 42 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or Lask Linz away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.25 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lask Linz have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Red Bull Salzburg's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Red Bull Salzburg
0
Draws
5
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, Red Bull Salzburg have won 5, Lask Linz have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Lask Linz 2-1 Red Bull Salzburg.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Red Bull Salzburg see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 40%, Lask Linz 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Red Bull Salzburg) and 35% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Red Bull Salzburg play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Red Bull Salzburg's games and 70% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Red Bull Salzburg vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent games and 35% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and Lask Linz tend to score early?
Red Bull Salzburg have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lask Linz defy the odds to beat Red Bull Salzburg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Red Bull Salzburg 0-1 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.38 xG and Lask Linz 0.95 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Red Bull Salzburg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.04 / defence 0.69 against Lask Linz attack 0.96 / defence 1.06, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 44% | Draw 33% | Lask Linz 23%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Lask Linz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 52%, Lask Linz 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Lask Linz's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.71. Form was overturned, with Lask Linz winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Lask Linz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.