Rapid Vienna 2-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rapid Vienna at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rapid Vienna host TSV Hartberg at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga (matchday 10). Kick-off is Sunday 20 October 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Rapid Vienna have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Rapid Vienna have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
TSV Hartberg — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
TSV Hartberg's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Rapid Vienna have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Rapid Vienna have won 1, TSV Hartberg 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 May 2024, ended Rapid Vienna 0–3 TSV Hartberg — a TSV Hartberg win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Rapid Vienna trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 44% versus TSV Hartberg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 37% | TSV Hartberg 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.83 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.097 / defence 0.884 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.133 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.215. Data: built from Rapid Vienna's last 31 games and TSV Hartberg's last 30.
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 52% | Draw 23% | TSV Hartberg 25%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 1.94 | Draw 4.36 | TSV Hartberg 3.93. Rapid Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rapid Vienna as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rapid Vienna's last 10 home games and TSV Hartberg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rapid Vienna 50% (last 10 home games) | TSV Hartberg 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 10 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 October 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 52% | Draw 23% | TSV Hartberg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Rapid Vienna 1.83 / TSV Hartberg 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.097 / def 0.884 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.133 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.22
TSV Hartberg xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg FAQs
What time does Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Rapid Vienna 2 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 10) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 52% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 1.10x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Rapid Vienna's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rapid Vienna's last 31 games and TSV Hartberg's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
52%
1.94
23%
4.36
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
3.04
1.22
TSV Hartberg xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
16%
6.21
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
4%
24.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.6 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.22 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 41 games, going 16W 15D 10L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.37 PPG from 41 outings (15W 11D 15L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rapid Vienna on 1.54 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 7W 8D 5L across their last 20 home games, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.35 points per game from their last 20 away games (7W 6D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.44 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Rapid Vienna (Home) vs TSV Hartberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rapid Vienna
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg Form FAQs
What form are Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 16W 15D 10L in their last 41 games (1.54 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 15W 11D 15L in their last 41 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.45 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Rapid Vienna or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 31 Mar 2024, when Rapid Vienna won TSV Hartberg 0-3 Rapid Vienna.
Rapid Vienna's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
4
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rapid Vienna have won 4, TSV Hartberg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: Rapid Vienna 3-1 TSV Hartberg.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 55%, TSV Hartberg 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Rapid Vienna) and 70% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Rapid Vienna's games and 65% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Rapid Vienna's matches and 70% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 80% of TSV Hartberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rapid Vienna edge out TSV Hartberg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat TSV Hartberg 2-1 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.83 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.22 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.10 / defence 0.88 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.13 / defence 1.04, drawn from 31/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 52% | Draw 23% | TSV Hartberg 25%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 37%, TSV Hartberg 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.54 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.