Rapid Vienna 3-3 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Vienna make the trip to Allianz Stadion to face Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 April 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's home record at Allianz Stadion: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Austria Vienna (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rapid Vienna have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Austria Vienna in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rapid Vienna 64% and Austria Vienna 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 59% | Austria Vienna 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.79 xG and Austria Vienna 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.203 / defence 0.967 | Austria Vienna attack 1.040 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.335. Data: 44 Rapid Vienna games / 44 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 48% | Draw 23% | Austria Vienna 29%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Austria Vienna 3.45. Rapid Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Rapid Vienna 60% | Austria Vienna 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 48% | Draw 23% | Austria Vienna 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.79 / Austria Vienna 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.203 / def 0.967 | Austria Vienna attack 1.040 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Austria Vienna xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Rapid Vienna 3 - 3 Austria Vienna.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 48% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Austria Vienna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 1.20x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (1.04x) against Rapid Vienna's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
48%
2.08
23%
4.34
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
3.14
1.34
Austria Vienna xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
17%
6.02
Win to Nil
13%
7.96
5%
20.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.34 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 56 games, going 23W 13D 20L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.48 PPG from 56 outings (21W 20D 15L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Rapid Vienna against 1.48 for Austria Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 14W 5D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.32 points per game from 28 outings (9W 10D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.54 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Austria Vienna in 64%.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 23W 13D 20L in their last 56 games (1.46 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 21W 20D 15L in their last 56 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Austria Vienna away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.68 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rapid Vienna won 3-0 on 25 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rapid Vienna have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
4
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 4, Austria Vienna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Rapid Vienna 0-2 Austria Vienna.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 57%, Austria Vienna 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Rapid Vienna) and 57% (Austria Vienna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Austria Vienna in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Rapid Vienna's games and 61% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Rapid Vienna's matches and 57% of Austria Vienna's.
Do Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Allianz Stadion, Championship Round - 3, as Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna drew 3-3 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.79 xG and Austria Vienna 1.34 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Rapid Vienna beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Austria Vienna outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.20 / defence 0.97 against Austria Vienna attack 1.04 / defence 1.08, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 48% | Draw 23% | Austria Vienna 29%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 59%, Austria Vienna 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.46 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.