Lask Linz 1-4 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lask Linz at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Raiffeisen Arena plays host to Lask Linz versus WSG Wattens in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 17 September 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Lask Linz (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz at Raiffeisen Arena this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
WSG Wattens's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, WSG Wattens have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Lask Linz. A 1.30 PPG lead over WSG Wattens (2.10 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, WSG Wattens in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Lask Linz half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
WSG Wattens half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 61% versus WSG Wattens 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 49% | WSG Wattens 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.94 xG and WSG Wattens 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.270 / defence 0.920 | WSG Wattens attack 0.866 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.473. Lask Linz carry an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 30 Lask Linz games / 30 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 54% | Draw 25% | WSG Wattens 21%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | WSG Wattens 4.76. Lask Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 70% | WSG Wattens 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 54% | Draw 25% | WSG Wattens 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Lask Linz 1.94 / WSG Wattens 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.270 / def 0.920 | WSG Wattens attack 0.866 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.17
WSG Wattens xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens?
Lask Linz 1 - 4 WSG Wattens.
Where is Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens part of?
Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 54% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Lask Linz and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and WSG Wattens?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lask Linz and WSG Wattens in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. WSG Wattens (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lask Linz's attack rating (1.27) and WSG Wattens's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — WSG Wattens's attack (0.87x) against Lask Linz's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
54%
1.86
25%
3.98
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
3.12
1.17
WSG Wattens xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
3%
33.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.1 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.17 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lask Linz come into this having played 41 games, going 14W 15D 12L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, WSG Wattens sit at 1.20 PPG from 41 outings (13W 10D 18L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Lask Linz against 1.20 for WSG Wattens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Lask Linz's home form reads 9W 6D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, WSG Wattens have taken 1.00 points per game from 20 outings (6W 2D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lask Linz are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.37 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 14W 15D 12L in their last 41 games (1.39 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 13W 10D 18L in their last 41 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or WSG Wattens away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.65 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: WSG Wattens won 1-4 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Lask Linz
1
Draws
2
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 7, WSG Wattens have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Lask Linz 1-0 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and WSG Wattens?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 60%, WSG Wattens 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Lask Linz and 70% for WSG Wattens. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play WSG Wattens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Lask Linz's games and 50% of WSG Wattens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Lask Linz's matches and 70% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Lask Linz and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant WSG Wattens run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Lask Linz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat Lask Linz 1-4 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.94 xG and WSG Wattens 1.17 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Lask Linz fell 0.9 short of their projected output. WSG Wattens outscored their 1.17 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.27 / defence 0.92 against WSG Wattens attack 0.87 / defence 1.11, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 54% | Draw 25% | WSG Wattens 21%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a WSG Wattens win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 49%, WSG Wattens 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.39 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the WSG Wattens win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.