Lask Linz 3-3 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg meet at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 October 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Raiffeisen Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Raiffeisen Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Lask Linz are significantly better at Raiffeisen Arena than their overall form suggests.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Lask Linz, 1.30 for TSV Hartberg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Lask Linz have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, TSV Hartberg in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Across 6 previous meetings, Lask Linz are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2025, ended 2–0 with Lask Linz winning.
The historical record gives Lask Linz a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lask Linz — key trading statistics (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 51% versus TSV Hartberg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 56% | TSV Hartberg 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.30 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.037 / defence 1.025 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.088 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.221. Data: 30 Lask Linz games / 30 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 36% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 38%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | TSV Hartberg 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is TSV Hartberg at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Lask Linz 30% | TSV Hartberg 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Oct 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 36% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Lask Linz 1.30 / TSV Hartberg 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.037 / def 1.025 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.088 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.36
TSV Hartberg xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 5 October 2025 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Lask Linz 3 - 3 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 36% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
Record (6 meetings): Lask Linz 4W | Draws 2 | TSV Hartberg 0W.
What form are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 1.04x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (1.09x) against Lask Linz's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
36%
2.81
26%
3.85
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.66
1.36
TSV Hartberg xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
9%
10.97
10%
9.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.36 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lask Linz come into this having played 41 games, going 19W 6D 16L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.32 PPG from 41 outings (14W 12D 15L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Lask Linz against 1.32 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lask Linz's home form reads 11W 4D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.43 points per game from 21 outings (8W 6D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lask Linz are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.24 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 19W 6D 16L in their last 41 games (1.54 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 14W 12D 15L in their last 41 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.76 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 1-5 on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lask Linz
5
Draws
0
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 5, TSV Hartberg have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when TSV Hartberg 1-5 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 48%, TSV Hartberg 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Lask Linz) and 48% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 38%; TSV Hartberg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 43% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Lask Linz's recent games and 48% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg finished level at 3-3 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.30 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.36 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Lask Linz beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. TSV Hartberg outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.04 / defence 1.02 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.09 / defence 0.96, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 36% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 38%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 56%, TSV Hartberg 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.54 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.