Lask Linz 1-1 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lask Linz host Sturm Graz at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Championship Group - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 April 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Lask Linz have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Raiffeisen Arena, Lask Linz have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Raiffeisen Arena.
Sturm Graz — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lask Linz at 1.80 PPG versus Sturm Graz's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Sturm Graz have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 8 encounters against Lask Linz's 2 victories.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with Lask Linz winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sturm Graz have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Lask Linz in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 55% versus Sturm Graz 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 59% | Sturm Graz 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.54 xG and Sturm Graz 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.129 / defence 1.140 | Sturm Graz attack 1.112 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 Lask Linz games / 44 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 39% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 35%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Sturm Graz 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Lask Linz 40% | Sturm Graz 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 27 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 39% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Lask Linz 1.54 / Sturm Graz 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.129 / def 1.140 | Sturm Graz attack 1.112 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Sturm Graz xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Lask Linz 1 - 1 Sturm Graz.
Where is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz part of?
Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz is a Championship Group - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 39% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Lask Linz and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
Record (8 meetings): Lask Linz 2W | Draws 1 | Sturm Graz 5W.
What form are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 1.13x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
39%
2.57
26%
3.90
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.99
1.45
Sturm Graz xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
9%
10.99
8%
13.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.45 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 30W 11D 17L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz's form line: 33W 10D 15L from 58 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.74 PPG, Sturm Graz on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 1.97 PPG from 29 outings (17W 6D 6L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 17W 4D 8L from 29 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.84 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 30W 11D 17L in their last 58 games (1.74 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 33W 10D 15L in their last 58 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Sturm Graz away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.97 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lask Linz
3
Draws
5
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 2, Sturm Graz have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 48%, Sturm Graz 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Lask Linz) and 62% (Sturm Graz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Sturm Graz in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Sturm Graz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 59% of Sturm Graz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Lask Linz's matches and 62% of Sturm Graz's.
Do Lask Linz and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz and Sturm Graz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz and Sturm Graz finished level at 1-1 at Raiffeisen Arena, Championship Group - 27, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.54 xG and Sturm Graz 1.45 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.13 / defence 1.14 against Sturm Graz attack 1.11 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 39% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 35%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 59%, Sturm Graz 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.74 PPG, Sturm Graz 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.