Lask Linz 1-2 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lask Linz host Sturm Graz at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Lask Linz have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Raiffeisen Arena, Lask Linz have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sturm Graz — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sturm Graz — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lask Linz register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sturm Graz in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Lask Linz have won 1, Sturm Graz 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lask Linz in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 48% versus Sturm Graz 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 45% | Sturm Graz 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.55 xG and Sturm Graz 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.150 / defence 1.244 | Sturm Graz attack 1.193 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.173. Data: 32 Lask Linz games / 32 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 34% | Draw 23% | Sturm Graz 42%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Sturm Graz 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 60% | Sturm Graz 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 34% | Draw 23% | Sturm Graz 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Lask Linz 1.55 / Sturm Graz 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.150 / def 1.244 | Sturm Graz attack 1.193 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Sturm Graz xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Lask Linz 1 - 2 Sturm Graz.
Where is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz part of?
Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 34% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Lask Linz and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
Record (4 meetings): Lask Linz 1W | Draws 1 | Sturm Graz 2W.
What form are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Sturm Graz (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 1.15x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
34%
2.91
23%
4.32
42%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
3.29
1.74
Sturm Graz xG
2.91
34%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.35
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
18%
5.70
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
6%
16.60
9%
11.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.74 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 18W 11D 13L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz's form line: 26W 11D 5L from 42 games, 2.12 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lask Linz.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 1.80 PPG from 20 outings (11W 3D 6L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 11W 7D 2L from 20 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.90 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Sturm Graz in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 18W 11D 13L in their last 42 games (1.55 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 26W 11D 5L in their last 42 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.80 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lask Linz
3
Draws
5
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 2, Sturm Graz have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 40%, Sturm Graz 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lask Linz) and 60% (Sturm Graz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Sturm Graz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 65% of Sturm Graz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Lask Linz's matches and 60% of Sturm Graz's.
Do Lask Linz and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out Lask Linz 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Lask Linz 1-2 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.55 xG and Sturm Graz 1.74 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.15 / defence 1.24 against Sturm Graz attack 1.19 / defence 0.84, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 34% | Draw 23% | Sturm Graz 42%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 45%, Sturm Graz 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.55. That form edge translated into the three points. Lask Linz (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.