Lask Linz 2-1 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lask Linz host Sturm Graz at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 April 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Lask Linz have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Raiffeisen Arena, Lask Linz have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sturm Graz — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's away record: 6W 4D 0L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sturm Graz — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Lask Linz in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lask Linz 64% and Sturm Graz 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 51% | Sturm Graz 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 0.86 xG and Sturm Graz 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.943 / defence 0.994 | Sturm Graz attack 1.098 / defence 0.664. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.335. Sturm Graz's defence strength of 0.664 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Lask Linz games / 44 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 22% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 51%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Sturm Graz 1.96. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Lask Linz 70% | Sturm Graz 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 22% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG Lask Linz 0.86 / Sturm Graz 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.943 / def 0.994 | Sturm Graz attack 1.098 / def 0.664 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Sturm Graz xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Lask Linz 2 - 1 Sturm Graz.
Where is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz part of?
Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 22% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Lask Linz and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Sturm Graz (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 0.94x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.66x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
22%
4.48
27%
3.75
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.32
1.46
Sturm Graz xG
4.48
22%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
5%
19.21
21%
4.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 14.3 | 10.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.46 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 18W 21D 16L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz's form line: 31W 14D 10L from 55 games, 1.95 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lask Linz.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 1.52 PPG from 27 outings (11W 8D 8L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 13W 9D 5L from 27 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.85 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Sturm Graz in 64%.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 18W 21D 16L in their last 55 games (1.36 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 31W 14D 10L in their last 55 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.52 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lask Linz
3
Draws
5
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 2, Sturm Graz have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Sturm Graz see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 59%, Sturm Graz 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lask Linz) and 52% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz in 33%; Lask Linz have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Lask Linz's games and 63% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Lask Linz's recent games and 52% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Lask Linz defy the odds to beat Sturm Graz 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Sturm Graz 2-1 at Raiffeisen Arena, Championship Round - 2, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 0.86 xG and Sturm Graz 1.46 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Lask Linz beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against Sturm Graz attack 1.10 / defence 0.66, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 22% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 51%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Lask Linz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 51%, Sturm Graz 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.36. Form was overturned, with Lask Linz winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.