Lask Linz 5-0 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lask Linz face Rapid Vienna.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lask Linz host Rapid Vienna at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga (Championship Round - 7). Kick-off is Sunday 28 April 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Lask Linz — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Lask Linz are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Rapid Vienna stand at 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rapid Vienna away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lask Linz 1.20 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Lask Linz trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Rapid Vienna trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 55% versus Rapid Vienna 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 42% | Rapid Vienna 48%). Note also that Rapid Vienna surrender HT leads in 39% of cases while Lask Linz recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 0.93 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.884 / defence 0.958 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.166 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Rapid Vienna bring a tight defence (rating 0.784, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Lask Linz's projected output down. Data: built from Lask Linz's last 44 games and Rapid Vienna's last 44.
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 28% | Draw 33% | Rapid Vienna 39%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 3.53 | Draw 3.04 | Rapid Vienna 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rapid Vienna as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lask Linz's last 10 home games and Rapid Vienna's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lask Linz 40% (last 10 home games) | Rapid Vienna 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 7 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 28% | Draw 33% | Rapid Vienna 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Lask Linz 0.93 / Rapid Vienna 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.884 / def 0.958 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.166 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Rapid Vienna xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna FAQs
What time does Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Lask Linz 5 - 0 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna is a Bundesliga fixture (Championship Round - 7) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 28% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lask Linz's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Rapid Vienna's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lask Linz's last 44 games and Rapid Vienna's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
28%
3.53
33%
3.04
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.06
1.13
Rapid Vienna xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
9%
10.95
15%
6.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 14.4 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.13 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 26W 21D 13L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Rapid Vienna's form line: 21W 18D 21L from 60 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.65 PPG, Rapid Vienna on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 1.90 PPG from their last 30 home games (17W 6D 7L).
On the road, Rapid Vienna have gone 11W 7D 12L from their last 30 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.57 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Current Season
Rapid Vienna
Current Season
Lask Linz (Home) vs Rapid Vienna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lask Linz
Current Season
Rapid Vienna
Current Season
❓ Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna Form FAQs
What form are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 26W 21D 13L in their last 60 games (1.65 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 21W 18D 21L in their last 60 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.90 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from April 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Apr 2024, when Lask Linz won Lask Linz 5-0 Rapid Vienna.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 5W 0D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Lask Linz
1
Draws
3
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lask Linz have won 6, Rapid Vienna have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Lask Linz 0-2 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 53%, Rapid Vienna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lask Linz) and 47% (Rapid Vienna).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 50% of Rapid Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lask Linz's recent games and 47% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 70% of Rapid Vienna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lask Linz run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Rapid Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Rapid Vienna 5-0 at Raiffeisen Arena, Championship Round - 7, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 0.93 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.13 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Lask Linz beat their projection by 4.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rapid Vienna landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.88 / defence 0.96 against Rapid Vienna attack 1.17 / defence 0.78, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 28% | Draw 33% | Rapid Vienna 39%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Lask Linz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 42%, Rapid Vienna 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.65 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.