Lask Linz 4-2 Grazer AK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lask Linz face Grazer AK.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lask Linz and Grazer AK meet at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 7). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Lask Linz (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Grazer AK have collected 0.67 PPG across their last 6 games: 0W 4D 2L. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.83 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings (17%). Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Grazer AK's away record over their last 3 away games: 0W 2D 1L (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.67 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Lask Linz — key trading statistics (last 6 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Grazer AK — key trading statistics (last 6 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lask Linz 67% and Grazer AK 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 67% | Grazer AK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.38 xG and Grazer AK 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.735 / defence 1.385 | Grazer AK attack 0.863 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.150. Lask Linz's attack rating of 0.735 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.38. Lask Linz's defence rating of 1.385 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Grazer AK's projected output up. Data: built from Lask Linz's last 28 games and Grazer AK's last 6.
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 35% | Draw 30% | Grazer AK 35%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.84 | Draw 3.34 | Grazer AK 2.87. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 35% to win, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Lask Linz 35% and Grazer AK 35%, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lask Linz's last 10 home games and Grazer AK's last 3 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lask Linz 50% (last 10 home games) | Grazer AK 67% (last 3 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Grazer AK | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 7 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 September 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 35% | Draw 30% | Grazer AK 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Lask Linz 1.38 / Grazer AK 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.735 / def 1.385 | Grazer AK attack 0.863 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Lask Linz and Grazer AK level at 35% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Grazer AK xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lask Linz vs Grazer AK FAQs
What time does Lask Linz vs Grazer AK kick off?
Lask Linz vs Grazer AK kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Grazer AK?
Lask Linz 4 - 2 Grazer AK.
Where is Lask Linz vs Grazer AK being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Grazer AK part of?
Lask Linz vs Grazer AK is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 7) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Grazer AK?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 35% chance of winning, Grazer AK a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Grazer AK?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Lask Linz and Grazer AK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lask Linz vs Grazer AK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lask Linz's attack rating (0.73) and Grazer AK's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Grazer AK's attack (0.86x) against Lask Linz's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from Lask Linz's last 28 games and Grazer AK's last 6 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
35%
2.84
30%
3.34
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.75
1.37
Grazer AK xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
9%
11.24
9%
11.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lask Linz vs Grazer AK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Grazer AK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Grazer AK expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.37 for Grazer AK, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Grazer AK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 6 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 5L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Grazer AK's form line: 0W 4D 2L from 6 games, 0.67 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.50 PPG for Lask Linz against 0.67 for Grazer AK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 0.00 PPG from their last 3 home games (0W 0D 3L). That actually lags their 0.50 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Grazer AK have gone 0W 2D 1L from their last 3 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grazer AK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lask Linz are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Grazer AK are on 1.33 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Grazer AK in 83%.
Last 6 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Early Season
Grazer AK
Early Season
Lask Linz (Home) vs Grazer AK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lask Linz
Early Season
Grazer AK
Early Season
❓ Lask Linz vs Grazer AK Form FAQs
What form are Lask Linz and Grazer AK in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 1W 0D 5L in their last 6 games (0.50 PPG), while Grazer AK have gone 0W 4D 2L in their last 6 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Grazer AK away?
Grazer AK's away record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 0.00 PPG; Grazer AK away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 31 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Lask Linz have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won Lask Linz 3-0 Grazer AK on 31 Jul 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Grazer AK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Lask Linz
1
Draws
1
Grazer AK
Recent Meetings
❓ Lask Linz vs Grazer AK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Grazer AK?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Lask Linz have won 5, Grazer AK have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Grazer AK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 July 2026: Lask Linz 3-0 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Grazer AK?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Lask Linz, 67% for Grazer AK — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Lask Linz) and 33% (Grazer AK).
On the defensive side: Grazer AK in 33%; Lask Linz have failed to score in 33% of games; Grazer AK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Grazer AK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lask Linz vs Grazer AK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lask Linz and Grazer AK matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lask Linz's games and 67% of Grazer AK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lask Linz and Grazer AK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Lask Linz's recent games and 33% of Grazer AK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and Grazer AK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 67% of Grazer AK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Grazer AK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Grazer AK 4-2 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.38 xG and Grazer AK 1.37 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Lask Linz beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.73 / defence 1.39 against Grazer AK attack 0.86 / defence 1.14, drawn from 28/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 35% | Draw 30% | Grazer AK 35%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 67%, Grazer AK 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Grazer AK's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 0.50 PPG, Grazer AK 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm. Grazer AK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.