Lask Linz 1-3 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lask Linz face Austria Vienna.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lask Linz host Austria Vienna at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 15). Kick-off is Sunday 1 December 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Lask Linz — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Austria Vienna stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Austria Vienna have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lask Linz at 1.70 PPG versus Austria Vienna's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Lask Linz have won 2, Austria Vienna 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2024, ended Lask Linz 1–2 Austria Vienna — a Austria Vienna win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lask Linz in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 52% versus Austria Vienna 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 48% | Austria Vienna 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.29 xG and Austria Vienna 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.048 / defence 1.217 | Austria Vienna attack 0.850 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.140. Lask Linz's defence rating of 1.217 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Austria Vienna's projected output up. Data: built from Lask Linz's last 36 games and Austria Vienna's last 36.
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 39% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 33%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.59 | Draw 3.58 | Austria Vienna 2.99. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lask Linz are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lask Linz 70% (last 10 home games) | Austria Vienna 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 15 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 39% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Lask Linz 1.29 / Austria Vienna 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.048 / def 1.217 | Austria Vienna attack 0.850 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Austria Vienna xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna FAQs
What time does Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Lask Linz 1 - 3 Austria Vienna.
Where is Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna part of?
Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 15) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 39% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lask Linz and Austria Vienna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 1.05x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lask Linz's last 36 games and Austria Vienna's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
39%
2.59
28%
3.58
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.47
1.18
Austria Vienna xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
9%
10.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.18 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lask Linz come into this having played 46 games, going 20W 12D 14L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.72 PPG from 46 outings (22W 13D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.57 PPG, Austria Vienna on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lask Linz's home form reads 11W 5D 7L across their last 23 home games, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.35 points per game from their last 23 away games (9W 4D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.26 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Austria Vienna in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
Lask Linz (Home) vs Austria Vienna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lask Linz
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna Form FAQs
What form are Lask Linz and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 20W 12D 14L in their last 46 games (1.57 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 22W 13D 11L in their last 46 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Austria Vienna away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.65 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from May 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lask Linz have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Apr 2026, when Lask Linz won Lask Linz 4-1 Austria Vienna.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Lask Linz
2
Draws
2
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Austria Vienna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lask Linz have won 6, Austria Vienna have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Austria Vienna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Austria Vienna 0-2 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Austria Vienna?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 48%, Austria Vienna 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lask Linz) and 35% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Austria Vienna in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lask Linz and Austria Vienna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 44% of Austria Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lask Linz and Austria Vienna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lask Linz's recent games and 35% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and Austria Vienna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 78% of Austria Vienna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Vienna cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lask Linz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat Lask Linz 1-3 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.29 xG and Austria Vienna 1.18 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Austria Vienna outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.05 / defence 1.22 against Austria Vienna attack 0.85 / defence 0.82, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 39% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 33%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Austria Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 48%, Austria Vienna 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.57 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.