Grazer AK 3-4 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Grazer AK face Wolfsberger AC.

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Match Analysis

Grazer AK host Wolfsberger AC at Merkur Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 30 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Grazer AK have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Grazer AK have posted 1W 3D 2L from their last 6 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Wolfsberger AC stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Wolfsberger AC away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Grazer AK at 1.00 PPG versus Wolfsberger AC's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Grazer AK, 1 for Wolfsberger AC and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 6.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2024, ended Grazer AK 2–4 Wolfsberger AC — a Wolfsberger AC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Grazer AK in-play and half-time data (last 14 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (last 14 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grazer AK 79% and Wolfsberger AC 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 57% | Wolfsberger AC 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.07 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.809 / defence 1.247 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.230 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.066. Wolfsberger AC have an above-average attack rating of 1.230, which lifts their away xG to 1.64. Grazer AK's defence rating of 1.247 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Wolfsberger AC's projected output up. Data: built from Grazer AK's last 14 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 36.

Result probabilities: Grazer AK 25% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 50%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 4.08 | Draw 3.97 | Wolfsberger AC 1.99. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Grazer AK's last 6 home games and Wolfsberger AC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Grazer AK 83% (last 6 home games) | Wolfsberger AC 40% (last 10 away games).

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