Grazer AK 2-2 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grazer AK at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 7 as Grazer AK welcome Austria Vienna to Stadion Graz-Liebenau. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 September 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Grazer AK have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Grazer AK have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Grazer AK at Stadion Graz-Liebenau this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Grazer AK are significantly better at Stadion Graz-Liebenau than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Vienna stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Austria Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Grazer AK) versus 1.30 (Austria Vienna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Austria Vienna have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Grazer AK.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Austria Vienna winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Austria Vienna have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Grazer AK in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Austria Vienna in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 55% versus Austria Vienna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 60% | Austria Vienna 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.56 xG and Austria Vienna 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.850 / defence 0.880 | Austria Vienna attack 0.963 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.204. Data: 28 Grazer AK games / 28 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 48% | Draw 29% | Austria Vienna 23%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Austria Vienna 4.35. Grazer AK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Grazer AK as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grazer AK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Grazer AK 70% | Austria Vienna 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Graz-Liebenau • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 48% | Draw 29% | Austria Vienna 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Grazer AK 1.56 / Austria Vienna 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 0.850 / def 0.880 | Austria Vienna attack 0.963 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Grazer AK (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Austria Vienna xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Stadion Graz-Liebenau.
What was the final score in Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna?
Grazer AK 2 - 2 Austria Vienna.
Where is Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Graz-Liebenau.
What competition is Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna part of?
Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 48% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Grazer AK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Grazer AK and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Austria Vienna?
Record (4 meetings): Grazer AK 0W | Draws 1 | Austria Vienna 3W.
What form are Grazer AK and Austria Vienna in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Austria Vienna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Grazer AK's attack rating (0.85) and Austria Vienna's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus Grazer AK's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grazer AK Win
48%
2.08
29%
3.46
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
2.59
1.02
Austria Vienna xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
5%
20.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.02 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Grazer AK's recent record stands at 11W 11D 16L from 38 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Grazer AK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Austria Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 16W 5D 17L across 38 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Austria Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Grazer AK on 1.16 PPG, Austria Vienna on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Grazer AK have managed 7W 8D 3L from 18 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Grazer AK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Austria Vienna's away record stands at 9W 1D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Grazer AK are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.32 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Early Season
Austria Vienna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 11W 11D 16L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 16W 5D 17L in their last 38 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or Austria Vienna away?
Grazer AK's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 1.61 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Grazer AK and Austria Vienna runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Grazer AK's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Grazer AK
2
Draws
3
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Austria Vienna?
From 5 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 0, Austria Vienna have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Grazer AK 2-2 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Grazer AK at 72%, Austria Vienna at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Grazer AK and 61% for Austria Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Grazer AK's games and 61% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Grazer AK's matches and 61% of Austria Vienna's.
Do Grazer AK and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grazer AK and Austria Vienna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Regular Season - 7, as Grazer AK and Austria Vienna drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.56 xG and Austria Vienna 1.02 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Austria Vienna outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.85 / defence 0.88 against Austria Vienna attack 0.96 / defence 1.13, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 48% | Draw 29% | Austria Vienna 23%, with Grazer AK to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 60%, Austria Vienna 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grazer AK's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grazer AK 1.16 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Grazer AK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.