FC BW Linz 3-0 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC BW Linz at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC BW Linz host Wolfsberger AC at Hofmann Personal Stadion in Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC BW Linz — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC BW Linz's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Hofmann Personal Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FC BW Linz carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC BW Linz register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Wolfsberger AC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for FC BW Linz, 4 for Wolfsberger AC and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC BW Linz trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 52% versus Wolfsberger AC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 54% | Wolfsberger AC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.70 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 1.036 / defence 1.219 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.942 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Wolfsberger AC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing FC BW Linz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 FC BW Linz games / 44 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 46% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 29%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Wolfsberger AC 3.45. FC BW Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC BW Linz are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC BW Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC BW Linz 60% | Wolfsberger AC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 28 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Apr 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 46% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG FC BW Linz 1.70 / Wolfsberger AC 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 1.036 / def 1.219 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.942 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: FC BW Linz (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Wolfsberger AC xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
FC BW Linz 3 - 0 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC is a Relegation Group - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 46% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC BW Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (9 meetings): FC BW Linz 3W | Draws 2 | Wolfsberger AC 4W.
What form are FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC in?
FC BW Linz (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC BW Linz's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus FC BW Linz's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC BW Linz Win
46%
2.18
25%
3.99
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
3.02
1.32
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
5%
18.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 1.32 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, FC BW Linz have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 17W 9D 33L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC BW Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 23W 15D 21L from 59 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC BW Linz on 1.02 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC BW Linz have posted 1.38 PPG from 29 outings (13W 1D 15L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 11W 6D 12L from 29 away games — 1.34 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.58 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC in 63%.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 17W 9D 33L in their last 59 games (1.02 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 23W 15D 21L in their last 59 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
FC BW Linz's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.38 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2025, when Wolfsberger AC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC BW Linz's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC BW Linz
2
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC BW Linz have won 4, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when FC BW Linz 3-0 Wolfsberger AC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 52%, Wolfsberger AC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (FC BW Linz) and 59% (Wolfsberger AC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC BW Linz play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of FC BW Linz's games and 62% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of FC BW Linz's matches and 59% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
FC BW Linz have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC BW Linz run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Wolfsberger AC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC BW Linz beat Wolfsberger AC 3-0 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Relegation Group - 28, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.70 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.32 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC BW Linz beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wolfsberger AC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 1.04 / defence 1.22 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.94 / defence 1.22, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 46% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 29%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 54%, Wolfsberger AC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC BW Linz 1.02 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC BW Linz win broke the near-deadlock. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.