FC BW Linz 0-0 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC BW Linz at 39%, yet in-form Wolfsberger AC provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC BW Linz host Wolfsberger AC at Hofmann Personal Stadion in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC BW Linz — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC BW Linz's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Hofmann Personal Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Hofmann Personal Stadion. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — FC BW Linz are significantly better at Hofmann Personal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Wolfsberger AC's 1.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of FC BW Linz's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
FC BW Linz trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 46% versus Wolfsberger AC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 38% | Wolfsberger AC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.28 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 0.833 / defence 1.182 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.927 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.013. Data: 22 FC BW Linz games / 44 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 39% | Draw 30% | Wolfsberger AC 31%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Wolfsberger AC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC BW Linz are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wolfsberger AC (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC BW Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC BW Linz 50% | Wolfsberger AC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 39% | Draw 30% | Wolfsberger AC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG FC BW Linz 1.28 / Wolfsberger AC 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 0.833 / def 1.182 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.927 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: FC BW Linz (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Wolfsberger AC xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
FC BW Linz 0 - 0 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 39% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC BW Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC in?
FC BW Linz (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC BW Linz's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus FC BW Linz's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC BW Linz Win
39%
2.57
30%
3.29
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.38
1.11
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
9%
11.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.2 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 1.11 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, FC BW Linz have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 4W 9D 11L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC BW Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 8W 8D 8L from 24 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Wolfsberger AC are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC BW Linz.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC BW Linz have posted 1.08 PPG from 12 outings (2W 7D 3L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 3W 5D 4L from 12 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC BW Linz are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.25 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 4W 9D 11L in their last 24 games (0.88 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 8W 8D 8L in their last 24 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.08 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2025, when Wolfsberger AC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC BW Linz's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC BW Linz
2
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC BW Linz have won 4, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when FC BW Linz 3-0 Wolfsberger AC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 50%, Wolfsberger AC 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (FC BW Linz) and 42% (Wolfsberger AC).
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; FC BW Linz have failed to score in 33% of games; Wolfsberger AC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC BW Linz play Wolfsberger AC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 42% of Wolfsberger AC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of FC BW Linz's recent games and 42% of Wolfsberger AC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
FC BW Linz have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC BW Linz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC finished level at 0-0 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Relegation Round - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.28 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.11 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC BW Linz fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Wolfsberger AC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.83 / defence 1.18 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.93 / defence 1.14, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 39% | Draw 30% | Wolfsberger AC 31%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 38%, Wolfsberger AC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Wolfsberger AC arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.