FC BW Linz 1-1 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC BW Linz host Sturm Graz at Hofmann Personal Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 December 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC BW Linz — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC BW Linz at Hofmann Personal Stadion this season: 2W 4D 1L from 7 home games — 1.43 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Hofmann Personal Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sturm Graz stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sturm Graz are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC BW Linz have won 0, Sturm Graz 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 1–4 with Sturm Graz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC BW Linz trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Sturm Graz trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 40% versus Sturm Graz 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 47% | Sturm Graz 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 0.98 xG and Sturm Graz 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 0.845 / defence 0.925 | Sturm Graz attack 1.232 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.251. Sturm Graz have an above-average attack strength of 1.232 — the away xG of 1.43 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 15 FC BW Linz games / 37 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 26% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 47%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Sturm Graz 2.13. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: FC BW Linz 29% | Sturm Graz 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 26% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG FC BW Linz 0.98 / Sturm Graz 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 0.845 / def 0.925 | Sturm Graz attack 1.232 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Sturm Graz xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz kick off?
FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz?
FC BW Linz 1 - 1 Sturm Graz.
Where is FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz part of?
FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 26% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz?
Record (1 meetings): FC BW Linz 0W | Draws 0 | Sturm Graz 1W.
What form are FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz in?
FC BW Linz (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC BW Linz's attack at 0.84x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus FC BW Linz's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
26%
3.85
27%
3.74
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.41
1.43
Sturm Graz xG
3.85
26%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
6%
16.00
18%
5.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.8 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 1.43 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 15 outings, FC BW Linz have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 4W 4D 7L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC BW Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz's form line: 10W 3D 2L from 15 games, 2.20 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 1.13 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC BW Linz.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC BW Linz have posted 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (2W 4D 1L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 5W 1D 1L from 7 away games — 2.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.73 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 4W 4D 7L in their last 15 games (1.07 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 10W 3D 2L in their last 15 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.43 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 2.29 PPG.
Have FC BW Linz or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC BW Linz have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sturm Graz go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2023, when Sturm Graz won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC BW Linz's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
FC BW Linz
1
Draws
7
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz?
From 8 meetings on record, FC BW Linz have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-0 FC BW Linz.
Who has won more matches between FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 29%, Sturm Graz 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (FC BW Linz) and 71% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Sturm Graz in 43%; FC BW Linz have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC BW Linz play Sturm Graz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 57% of Sturm Graz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC BW Linz vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of FC BW Linz's recent games and 71% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
FC BW Linz have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC BW Linz and Sturm Graz finished level at 1-1 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 0.98 xG and Sturm Graz 1.43 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.84 / defence 0.93 against Sturm Graz attack 1.23 / defence 0.89, drawn from 15/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 26% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 47%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 47%, Sturm Graz 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.