FC BW Linz 2-1 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC BW Linz at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Hofmann Personal Stadion plays host to FC BW Linz versus SCR Altach in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 6. Kick-off: Tuesday 23 April 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC BW Linz have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 6D 4L. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC BW Linz have posted 2W 6D 2L at Hofmann Personal Stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Hofmann Personal Stadion. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — FC BW Linz are significantly better at Hofmann Personal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
SCR Altach (all games): 1W 7D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SCR Altach have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for FC BW Linz, 1.00 for SCR Altach — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FC BW Linz, 0 for SCR Altach and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
FC BW Linz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 48% versus SCR Altach 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC BW Linz 41% | SCR Altach 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.21 xG and SCR Altach 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 0.835 / defence 1.179 | SCR Altach attack 0.920 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Data: 22 FC BW Linz games / 44 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 37% | Draw 31% | SCR Altach 32%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | SCR Altach 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC BW Linz at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC BW Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC BW Linz 40% | SCR Altach 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Apr 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 37% | Draw 31% | SCR Altach 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG FC BW Linz 1.21 / SCR Altach 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 0.835 / def 1.179 | SCR Altach attack 0.920 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: FC BW Linz (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.10
SCR Altach xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach kick off?
FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 23 April 2024 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
FC BW Linz 2 - 1 SCR Altach.
Where is FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach part of?
FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach is a Relegation Round - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 37% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC BW Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC BW Linz and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and SCR Altach?
Record (3 meetings): FC BW Linz 0W | Draws 3 | SCR Altach 0W.
What form are FC BW Linz and SCR Altach in?
FC BW Linz (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC BW Linz's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against SCR Altach's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.92x) against FC BW Linz's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 22/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC BW Linz Win
37%
2.69
31%
3.22
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.31
1.10
SCR Altach xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
10%
10.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 1.10 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, FC BW Linz have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 4W 11D 12L record — D-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC BW Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SCR Altach's form line: 5W 11D 11L from 27 games, 0.96 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-D. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.85 PPG for FC BW Linz against 0.96 for SCR Altach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC BW Linz have posted 1.08 PPG from 13 outings (2W 8D 3L).
On the road, SCR Altach have gone 2W 5D 6L from 13 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
FC BW Linz are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.78 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC BW Linz and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 4W 11D 12L in their last 27 games (0.85 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 5W 11D 11L in their last 27 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or SCR Altach away?
FC BW Linz's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.08 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.85 PPG.
Have FC BW Linz or SCR Altach been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC BW Linz have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, SCR Altach in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won 3-0 on 24 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC BW Linz have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC BW Linz
3
Draws
3
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, FC BW Linz have won 4, SCR Altach have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when FC BW Linz 3-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between FC BW Linz and SCR Altach?
FC BW Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 46%, SCR Altach 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for FC BW Linz and 38% for SCR Altach.
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; SCR Altach in 31%; FC BW Linz have failed to score in 38% of games; SCR Altach in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC BW Linz play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 38% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC BW Linz vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of FC BW Linz's recent games and 38% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC BW Linz and SCR Altach tend to score early?
FC BW Linz have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC BW Linz edge out SCR Altach 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC BW Linz beat SCR Altach 2-1 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Relegation Round - 6, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.21 xG and SCR Altach 1.10 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.83 / defence 1.18 against SCR Altach attack 0.92 / defence 1.08, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 37% | Draw 31% | SCR Altach 32%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 41%, SCR Altach 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
SCR Altach's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC BW Linz 0.85 PPG, SCR Altach 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC BW Linz win broke the near-deadlock. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.