Austria Vienna 1-0 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 47%, yet in-form Wolfsberger AC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Generali Arena plays host to Austria Vienna versus Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 27 February 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Austria Vienna have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Generali Arena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Wolfsberger AC's overall Bundesliga record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Wolfsberger AC have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Wolfsberger AC are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 60% versus Wolfsberger AC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 35% | Wolfsberger AC 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.60 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.059 / defence 1.021 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.812 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.382. Wolfsberger AC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing Austria Vienna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Austria Vienna games / 20 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 47% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 26%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Wolfsberger AC 3.85. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Vienna at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wolfsberger AC (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 70% | Wolfsberger AC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 47% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Austria Vienna 1.60 / Wolfsberger AC 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.059 / def 1.021 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.812 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Wolfsberger AC xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Austria Vienna 1 - 0 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 47% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (0.81x) against Austria Vienna's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.78
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.75
1.15
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
5%
18.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.15 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, Austria Vienna have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 6W 9D 5L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 10W 4D 6L from 20 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.70 for Wolfsberger AC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Austria Vienna have posted 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (3W 5D 2L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.65 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 6W 9D 5L in their last 20 games (1.35 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 10W 4D 6L in their last 20 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.40 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Austria Vienna or Wolfsberger AC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Wolfsberger AC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Wolfsberger AC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won 0-4 on 11 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 5, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 3-0 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 70%, Wolfsberger AC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Austria Vienna) and 60% (Wolfsberger AC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Austria Vienna's games and 50% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Austria Vienna's recent games and 60% of Wolfsberger AC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Vienna edge out Wolfsberger AC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat Wolfsberger AC 1-0 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.60 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.15 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wolfsberger AC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.06 / defence 1.02 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.81 / defence 1.27, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 47% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 26%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 35%, Wolfsberger AC 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.35 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.