Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Generali Arena plays host to Austria Vienna versus Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 28 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Austria Vienna have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Generali Arena this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Wolfsberger AC's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Wolfsberger AC have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Austria Vienna, 0.50 for Wolfsberger AC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Austria Vienna 5W, Wolfsberger AC 4W, 1D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2026, ended 0–3 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 56% versus Wolfsberger AC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 58% | Wolfsberger AC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.49 xG and Wolfsberger AC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 0.672 / defence 1.022 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.721 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.304. Austria Vienna's attack strength of 0.672 is below the league average — the 1.49 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Wolfsberger AC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Austria Vienna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Austria Vienna games / 31 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 46% | Draw 33% | Wolfsberger AC 21%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.17 | Draw 3.03 | Wolfsberger AC 4.76. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Vienna at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Austria Vienna 50% | Wolfsberger AC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 46% | Draw 33% | Wolfsberger AC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Austria Vienna 1.49 / Wolfsberger AC 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 0.672 / def 1.022 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.721 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.806 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Wolfsberger AC xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Generali Arena.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 46% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (10 meetings): Austria Vienna 5W | Draws 1 | Wolfsberger AC 4W.
What form are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (0.72x) against Austria Vienna's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
46%
2.16
33%
3.07
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.45
0.96
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
5%
20.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 0.96 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Austria Vienna have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 16W 6D 19L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 12W 10D 19L from 41 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.12 for Wolfsberger AC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Austria Vienna have posted 1.20 PPG from 20 outings (7W 3D 10L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 4W 3D 13L from 20 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.20 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 16W 6D 19L in their last 41 games (1.32 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 12W 10D 19L in their last 41 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.20 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Wolfsberger AC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won 0-4 on 11 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 5, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 3-0 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 45%, Wolfsberger AC 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Austria Vienna and 70% for Wolfsberger AC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna have failed to score in 40% of games; Wolfsberger AC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Austria Vienna's games and 65% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Austria Vienna's matches and 70% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.