Austria Vienna 3-1 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Austria Vienna face Wolfsberger AC.

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Full Analysis

Generali Arena plays host to Austria Vienna versus Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga (matchday 2). Kick-off: Sunday 11 August 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Austria Vienna have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Austria Vienna's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Wolfsberger AC's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, Wolfsberger AC have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Austria Vienna, 1.70 for Wolfsberger AC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Austria Vienna edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 May 2024, ended Austria Vienna 2–1 Wolfsberger AC — a Austria Vienna win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (last 34 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (last 34 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 38% versus Wolfsberger AC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 44% | Wolfsberger AC 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.60 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.021 / defence 0.937 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.970 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.118. Data: built from Austria Vienna's last 23 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 23. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 51% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 24%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 1.96 | Draw 4.01 | Wolfsberger AC 4.16. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Vienna at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Austria Vienna 50% (last 10 home games) | Wolfsberger AC 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

The Poisson model's sample (Austria Vienna 23 games, Wolfsberger AC 23) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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