Austria Vienna 0-0 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Generali Arena plays host to Austria Vienna versus Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 20 August 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Austria Vienna have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Austria Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Austria Vienna's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Generali Arena this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Austria Vienna are significantly better at Generali Arena than their overall form suggests.
Wolfsberger AC's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Wolfsberger AC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Wolfsberger AC have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Wolfsberger AC are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Vienna 67% and Wolfsberger AC 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Austria Vienna 72% | Wolfsberger AC 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.34 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 0.954 / defence 1.158 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.107 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.203. Data: 25 Austria Vienna games / 25 Wolfsberger AC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 31% | Draw 28% | Wolfsberger AC 40%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Wolfsberger AC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wolfsberger AC at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Austria Vienna 60% | Wolfsberger AC 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (25 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 31% | Draw 28% | Wolfsberger AC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Austria Vienna 1.34 / Wolfsberger AC 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 0.954 / def 1.158 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.107 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Wolfsberger AC xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Austria Vienna 0 - 0 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 31% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (1.11x) against Austria Vienna's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
The sample (25/25 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
31%
3.18
28%
3.56
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.88
1.54
Wolfsberger AC xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
7%
14.84
11%
9.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.54 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Austria Vienna have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 13W 11D 12L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Austria Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 13W 8D 15L from 36 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.31 for Wolfsberger AC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Austria Vienna have posted 1.59 PPG from 17 outings (8W 3D 6L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 9W 3D 5L from 17 away games — 1.76 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.31 PPG overall record — Wolfsberger AC travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.58 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Wolfsberger AC in 72%.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Early Season
Wolfsberger AC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 13W 11D 12L in their last 36 games (1.39 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 13W 8D 15L in their last 36 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.59 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Wolfsberger AC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won 0-4 on 11 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 5, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 3-0 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 59%, Wolfsberger AC 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Austria Vienna and 76% for Wolfsberger AC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Austria Vienna's games and 65% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Austria Vienna's matches and 76% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Austria Vienna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna and Wolfsberger AC finished level at 0-0 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.34 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.54 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Austria Vienna fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Wolfsberger AC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 0.95 / defence 1.16 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.11 / defence 1.08, drawn from 25/25 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 31% | Draw 28% | Wolfsberger AC 40%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 72%, Wolfsberger AC 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.39 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.