Austria Vienna 2-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Conference League Play-offs - Final sees TSV Hartberg travel to Generali Arena to take on Austria Vienna. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 May 2024, 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Vienna have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Generali Arena, Austria Vienna have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Generali Arena.
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
TSV Hartberg away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Austria Vienna) versus 1.10 (TSV Hartberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Austria Vienna, 1 for TSV Hartberg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 3–1 with Austria Vienna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Austria Vienna trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 53% versus TSV Hartberg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 61% | TSV Hartberg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.50 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.080 / defence 0.858 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.086 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.013. Data: 44 Austria Vienna games / 44 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 49% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 23%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | TSV Hartberg 4.35. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Austria Vienna 40% | TSV Hartberg 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Conference League Play-offs - Final | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Friday 24 May 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 49% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Austria Vienna 1.50 / TSV Hartberg 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.080 / def 0.858 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.086 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.94
TSV Hartberg xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 24 May 2024 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Austria Vienna 2 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg is a Conference League Play-offs - Final fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 49% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
Record (2 meetings): Austria Vienna 1W | Draws 0 | TSV Hartberg 1W.
What form are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
49%
2.04
29%
3.51
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.44
0.94
TSV Hartberg xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
5%
19.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 0.94 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Vienna's recent record stands at 25W 20D 19L from 64 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 21W 15D 28L across 64 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Vienna on 1.48 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Austria Vienna have managed 14W 11D 7L from 32 games — 1.66 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 10W 8D 14L across 32 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.38 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Current Season
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 25W 20D 19L in their last 64 games (1.48 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 21W 15D 28L in their last 64 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.66 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Austria Vienna have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Austria Vienna's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
3
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 6, TSV Hartberg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Austria Vienna 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 47%, TSV Hartberg 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Austria Vienna and 62% for TSV Hartberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Austria Vienna have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 56% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Austria Vienna's matches and 62% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Vienna edge out TSV Hartberg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat TSV Hartberg 2-1 at Generali Arena, Conference League Play-offs - Final, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.50 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.94 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.08 / defence 0.86 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.09 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 49% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 23%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 61%, TSV Hartberg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.48 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.