Austria Vienna 2-1 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach encounter.

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Match Analysis

Austria Vienna host SCR Altach at Generali Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 19). Kick-off is Saturday 17 February 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Austria Vienna — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

At home, Austria Vienna have gone 4W 5D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across their last 10 games, SCR Altach have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

SCR Altach away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Austria Vienna carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Austria Vienna, 1 for SCR Altach and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended Austria Vienna 1–2 SCR Altach — a SCR Altach win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 56% versus SCR Altach 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 64% | SCR Altach 46%). Note also that SCR Altach surrender HT leads in 57% of cases while Austria Vienna recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.60 xG and SCR Altach 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.070 / defence 0.731 | SCR Altach attack 0.772 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.257. SCR Altach's attack rating of 0.772 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.71. Austria Vienna have a tight defence (rating 0.731), which is pulling SCR Altach's projected output down. Data: built from Austria Vienna's last 40 games and SCR Altach's last 40.

Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 58% | Draw 26% | SCR Altach 16%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 1.71 | Draw 3.88 | SCR Altach 6.32. The model has a clear lean to Austria Vienna (58%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Austria Vienna are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Austria Vienna 20% (last 10 home games) | SCR Altach 40% (last 10 away games).

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