Austria Vienna 1-3 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Austria Vienna face Red Bull Salzburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg meet at Generali Arena in Bundesliga (Championship Round - 4). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Austria Vienna (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Austria Vienna have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Red Bull Salzburg's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Austria Vienna, 2 for Red Bull Salzburg and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 22 Feb 2025, ended Austria Vienna 0–1 Red Bull Salzburg — a Red Bull Salzburg win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Red Bull Salzburg — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 44% versus Red Bull Salzburg 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 47% | Red Bull Salzburg 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.30 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.025 / defence 0.822 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.825 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. Red Bull Salzburg bring a tight defence (rating 0.794, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Austria Vienna's projected output down. Data: built from Austria Vienna's last 44 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 44.
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 45% | Draw 35% | Red Bull Salzburg 20%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.23 | Draw 2.87 | Red Bull Salzburg 4.92. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Austria Vienna's last 10 home games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Austria Vienna 40% (last 10 home games) | Red Bull Salzburg 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 45% | Draw 35% | Red Bull Salzburg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Austria Vienna 1.30 / Red Bull Salzburg 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.025 / def 0.822 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.825 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Red Bull Salzburg xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg FAQs
What time does Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 20 April 2025 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Austria Vienna 1 - 3 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Bundesliga fixture (Championship Round - 4) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 45% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 20% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Red Bull Salzburg's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Red Bull Salzburg's attack (0.82x) against Austria Vienna's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from Austria Vienna's last 44 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
45%
2.23
35%
2.87
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.11
0.81
Red Bull Salzburg xG
2.23
45%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
6%
18.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.8 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 0.81 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Austria Vienna have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 29W 15D 13L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Red Bull Salzburg's form line: 32W 15D 10L from 57 games, 1.95 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.79 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.95 for Red Bull Salzburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Austria Vienna have posted 2.07 PPG from their last 28 home games (16W 10D 2L).
On the road, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 13W 9D 6L from their last 28 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 1.96 scored and 0.95 conceded. Red Bull Salzburg's attacking output running into Austria Vienna's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Red Bull Salzburg in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
Austria Vienna (Home) vs Red Bull Salzburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Austria Vienna
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg Form FAQs
What form are Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 29W 15D 13L in their last 57 games (1.79 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 32W 15D 10L in their last 57 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Austria Vienna's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 2.07 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Austria Vienna or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Red Bull Salzburg have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Red Bull Salzburg won Austria Vienna 0-3 Red Bull Salzburg on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 0W 1D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Red Bull Salzburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
8
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Austria Vienna have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Red Bull Salzburg 4-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 43%, Red Bull Salzburg 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Austria Vienna) and 39% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Red Bull Salzburg in 46%; Austria Vienna have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 43% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Austria Vienna's recent games and 39% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 71% of Red Bull Salzburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Red Bull Salzburg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Austria Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat Austria Vienna 1-3 at Generali Arena, Championship Round - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.30 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 0.81 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.02 / defence 0.82 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.82 / defence 0.79, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 45% | Draw 35% | Red Bull Salzburg 20%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Red Bull Salzburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 47%, Red Bull Salzburg 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.79 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Red Bull Salzburg win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.