Austria Vienna 2-2 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Generali Arena plays host to Austria Vienna versus Austria Lustenau in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 3 September 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Austria Vienna have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Austria Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Austria Vienna have posted 5W 3D 2L at Generali Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Austria Lustenau (all games): 3W 1D 2L across 6 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.67 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.83. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Austria Lustenau have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Austria Lustenau away from home this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.67 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Austria Lustenau in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games.
Austria Lustenau — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Vienna 83% and Austria Lustenau 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Austria Vienna 83% | Austria Lustenau 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.55 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.017 / defence 0.862 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.803 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.404. Data: 28 Austria Vienna games / 6 Austria Lustenau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 51% | Draw 26% | Austria Lustenau 24%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Austria Lustenau 4.17. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Austria Vienna 80% | Austria Lustenau 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 51% | Draw 26% | Austria Lustenau 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Austria Vienna 1.55 / Austria Lustenau 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.017 / def 0.862 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.803 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Austria Lustenau xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Austria Vienna 2 - 2 Austria Lustenau.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau part of?
Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 51% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Austria Lustenau (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.83 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Austria Vienna's attack rating (1.02) and Austria Lustenau's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Austria Lustenau's attack (0.80x) against Austria Vienna's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 28/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.92
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.52
0.97
Austria Lustenau xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
5%
19.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.1 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 0.97 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Austria Vienna's recent record stands at 2W 2D 2L from 6 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Austria Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Austria Lustenau, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 2L across 6 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.67 for Austria Lustenau. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.50 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games; Austria Lustenau in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Early Season
Austria Lustenau
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Austria Vienna won 5-0 on 11 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Austria Lustenau — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Austria Vienna
3
Draws
2
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau?
From 8 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 3, Austria Lustenau have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when Austria Lustenau 2-0 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Austria Vienna, 67% for Austria Lustenau — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Austria Vienna and 67% for Austria Lustenau. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Lustenau in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Austria Lustenau?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Austria Vienna's games and 67% of Austria Lustenau's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Austria Vienna's matches and 67% of Austria Lustenau's.
Do Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Austria Lustenau in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau finished level at 2-2 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.55 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.97 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Austria Lustenau outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.02 / defence 0.86 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.80 / defence 0.95, drawn from 28/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 51% | Draw 26% | Austria Lustenau 24%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 83%, Austria Lustenau 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.33 PPG, Austria Lustenau 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.